Fomenka

Fomenka

NatGas has been following the plan so far. Slowly getting into the position to bounce of 200 MA on Daily chart. Perhaps oil will rally due to similar reasons yet to be known.

Fomenka

Oil remains unclear. I so far stick to my previous scenario though I can see the rational for another sell-off too.

Fomenka

One more push upwards is still in the cards to finalise the expending traingle shape (in case it is a triangle).

Fomenka

Imagining how it may end. I no longer use color coding since it adds no value. The level of certainty with ElliottWaves is something illusory.

Fomenka

WTI is bouncing off very strong support. The scenarios here is ether a one last steep rally to complete the expanded diagonal or work out a longer contracting diagonal. No confidence here as this is very speculative. Can perhaps continue to slide down though I do not have a scenario for that yet.

Fomenka

A small pop up is expected to finish the wxy structure. After which a steep sell off is due. If, however, the previous high (red dashed line) is violated - we are likely in a diagonal scenario that I have been tracking since last year I think. In any case it is better to stay on the sidelines for now until more clarity.

Fomenka

Well, I think we are in a downtrend since the last update. Here is the base case. Other options are possible yet I have to zoom out and outline them on a higher timeframe.

Fomenka

Ok, as it often happens given the extrem sell-off on the news I am falling back on one of my older scenarios where wave 2 has a more pronounced wave retracing at least 0.618 of wave 1. Other options are also possible (one indicated as a bigger contracting diagonal). It might be a chance to short but a SL has to be managed carefully.

Fomenka

A strong push can be expected today since we completed waves 1-2

Fomenka

Few options possible. I will watch this chart on the fence for a while.

Fomenka

Seems like we finally found the bottom. I had to retreat to wxy count again. Generally trading waves in a diagonal is not a very good idea. However, here the price is bouncing of a major support level. Just look at the daily chart.

Fomenka

The bullish long-term trend can choose different paths. Of course many of us on the bull side would like it to go straight up. Unfortunately I already see indications of possible diagonal in the making which would be more difficult to trade. One of those indications is an anemic wave 2 which can turn out to be wave as indicated in black. As we travel along...

Fomenka Updated 

Natural Gas is approaching a crunch moment. Because the price has taken the previous low labelled as wave a, the scenario with a even more expanded ABC flat is off the table. A more complex WXY is still possible where current ABC is wave W but less likely than a simple flat. Also a scenario with a longer wave C remains but I would assign it a lower probability.

Fomenka

Until there is some form of bounce and waves 1-2 of the new trend are shaped it is risky to call the bottom. One option could be that the ugly diagonal was extended wave 1. A recent consolidation looks like a neat barrier triangle that usually happens in waves b, x or 4. It it is 4 that means wave 5 should be shorter than wave 3. If it is b we are charting...

Fomenka

Aha! Seems like we are in the original scenario I posted earlier and the diagonal is complete. A lesson going forward - avoid labelling so condensed triangles as I did in the below post -

Fomenka

It has not been long for gas to shape what I see as ending diagonal. The uncertainty about which scenario we are in will stay for some time.

Fomenka

Today the market has invalidated the previous scenario with contracting triangle and now I am looking at 3 versions of a single scenario with [a ] [b ] [c ] flat. The chart is in category FAFO - f..ck around and find out.

Fomenka Updated 

Natgas has followed the Local Alternative scenario and formed a symmetrical triangle. The triangle is running meaning there is only direction possible (on the condition that it is a triangle and not something else). I will keep the idea in the green bucket of confidence.