Currently it looks we have a short-termed up-potential about 2-5% range. After that we will probably need to focus on the bigger picture again. Decision point in reach.
Couple of scenarios possible right now: Adam and Eve Bottom Double Bottom Reversal Wedge Descending Triangle with possible breakdown Repeat of history and break-up before total apocalypse and recovery Choose.
This is building setup is true trader´s dream, not only the Volume is a match, we have bulldivs on daily and 3-day, also the confidence BTC gained from the last break-out of an inverted H&S within the full year of consolidation are signs AGAINST this being a Bulltrap. This is so crazy obvious, I wonder if that will be the reason for a total fail of this Beauty....
With a new local low from last night and now testing around the marked resistance area, Bitcoin is losing one after the other battle, and I am honestly afraid, that we are out of consolidation and in a proper downtrend. Currently, I am not really looking for buy-entries, at least not yet or short-term orientated. To break this, we need more than up-volume, we need...
For me, unless BTC does a breakout of this descending wedge in whichever direction, I am not going to place trades. We need some serious up-volume, we already failed to form a good iHS and now face a lot of accumulated resistance. Take care of those yellow trendlines and the orange accumulation zone. Trade safe.
Looking at this, currently gives me stronger bullish feeling, very much depending on how scared the shorter´s are at this point making a retrace to the mid 5k$ a fair opportunity for short-term recovery. I am not 100% convinced yet, but it is a possibility. It basically all depends on the wick-to-wick resistance from log chart (last one keeping us from further...
Reviewing today´s market moves, it turned out there´s a slight chance we might finish wave 5 (?) with the help of a currently forming reversal Diamond Bottom. We should keep an eye out. It could shoot us back up to where we came from yesterday and today and most importantly back above the weekly EMA200. If this resolves bearish or in further sidemoves, I don´t...
If we fall through the yellow box firmly, the 3000 or just below 3000 USD become likely. If we don´t it´s fairly possible we see another prolonged flat correction in form of a descending triangle (or similar) before show down. The first hurdle to take will be the green EMA 200 in ANY move up.
After we hit target perfectly yesterday, I decided to extend my "bottom" theory a bit. Yesterday was not violent enough, it was still tradable and simply didn´t feel like bottoming. So I tried to figure out what would feel like a bottom? A very violent parabolic drop. I assume it´s possible the last wave could be a wick and mark the end of the 2018 consolidation....
No-trading zone for me, I will simply wait for a breakout, considering this could be solved sideways, downwards and upwards. What I would wish for is a weekly candleclose tomorrow night above the historically important weekly EMA200 which is currently our strongest support. If we close underneath by next week´s sunday close (capitulation in a big wick down to...