Glewis54

Glewis54

A reoccurring theme in the market is the three-period test of highs or lows. April may mark the three month test of the high in SPY (SPX). Throughout the past years, prices blew right through the previous high. The last time we saw such a move was in October of 2015. The move carried into November but ultimately failed. What came next, in rather quick order,...

Glewis54

Some are surprised that the "flight to safety" from the recent equity market slide has not occurred. Market instruments often follow their own beat. Soon though TLT may be exhibiting a surge, possibly seemingly caused by further stock market weakness. The waves however indicate that a powerful third wave of a larger third wave may be ready to propel TLT prices...

Glewis54

So many ways to look at the same thing. Here is a monthly line chart with log prices. From an Elliott Wave analysis perspective, it could even be possible that we are just experiencing Major 4 of Primary 3, going back from the 2009 lows. A wave 5 to follow on this as well as a number of other perspectives. Using call options here as a hedging tool in the event...

Glewis54

A closer look at a long term channel line may indicate that TLT, while briefly breaking the long term support channel line, has gotten back above. I had been looking for a bounce to the 122-123 level, a previous support level, and then another attack of the 117 area and a further breakdown, completing a long term head and shoulders top formation. But this view,...

Glewis54

Like SLV filling the gap. Been looking for tests here for three-month and three-week tests of previous lows. If we hold up this week, Should be going higher

Glewis54

One pattern I like to follow is a three-period test of the high or low. Should SLV hold this level (15.51) on Wednesday, the end of the month of February, it could be forming the base for a long-term bottom. The intermonth low for December was lower, so price action in March could also fall to test that low (14.74) but the a successful monthly close is a...

Glewis54

While a regular bar chart shows TLT holding firm at the neckline on a monthly chart, a simple line chart shows that TLT in fact has broken below the head and shoulders neck line. A rally to the neckline and subsequent failure indicates that price can fall below 100 over the long term

Glewis54

40 month moving average is one of my basic markers for fair value. Will it hold the channel?

Glewis54

SLV has met resistance at the 200 week moving average (16.23) but may be headed for a move higher if a proposed Elliot Wave count plays out. After a big move down, approximately 35 points, SLV appears to made a leg higher followed by support above the previous major low. This could indicate wave 2 of an Elliot Wave move. The current wave 3 move appears to be...