GrahamPeterson

GrahamPeterson

The 9/15 month MA that I posted previously combined with an additional specific event, an increase in unemployment of 0.6% from a recent low, better correlates with recessions since the 1950s than just the MA crossover. The crossover has in recent history preceded recessions while the 0.6% increases happen before, along with the start of of in the first 3 months...

GrahamPeterson

Trying to suss out where we go from here. If we stay in the falling wedge, I'm expecting resistance/support at Fib lines between the Feb 2020 high and the Dec 2018 low / March 2009 low. Other lows and highs from 2019 may act as resistance, but those are fairly close to fib lines. Would not be surprised by wedge top and Fib levels to act as peaks before...

GrahamPeterson

Looking for the Unemployment rate moving average to crossover in order to signal incoming recession. Crossover will provide useful investment reassessment trigger.