JB7oh2

JB7oh2

Today was all about the bonds just ripping like a meme stock the wild part is the market barely flinched spooky stuff, normally a day like today would have been a red trend day. So the past week has been safely buying puts on the pops, buying calls at support easy money. How long will it last for, most likely just this week, we are doing the same thing from the...

JB7oh2

Last months prediction wasn’t my best let’s see how March works out. I’m looking for a low in the 386 in the first couple of weeks if the bearish trend continues. A high of 421 by the end of the month once the FOMC comes out with 25 bps the market will react positive to the news of keeping pace with their current plan. So nothing to special more range bound since...

JB7oh2

Finally we are done with February tomorrow along with September they are the worst trading months of the year normally. So the talk is all the rates are priced in and earnings are not that bad. So once again the YEAR OF CONFUSION continues. I’m thinking we stay range bound until the FOMC meeting on the 22nd to see if they do the 50 points that’s the only way we...

JB7oh2

Monday- durable goods order pre-market, pending home sales 10am Wall Street time, fed Jefferson Tuesday- goods trade balance, retail inventories excluding auto, Chicago PMI, conference board consumer confidence 10am Wednesday- ISM manufacturing 10am, crude oil inventories 10:30am Thursday- initial jobless claims, fed Waller 1pm Friday- nothing pre market, ISM...

JB7oh2

Sounding like a broken record with these data event’s every one of them is more important then the last, it’s fun sometimes but the market is so boring in a bear market but this is where we learn the most. So tomorrow we know about the PCE if it comes in hot the market is going to think 50bps next rate hike which would catch everyone off guard and boom goes the...

JB7oh2

This must have been the most awaited minutes release ever and it was a dud, looks like Powell is keeping it real when he talks so what next. Since the market has already priced in the next 3 rate hikes at 25bps the only thing the market needs to adjust for is no pivot this year. For some reason everyone believes that in November we will start cutting rates. If you...

JB7oh2

The mood has changed dramatically in the last few trading days. The fake fed pivot is finally hitting the market there was no way the fed is going to cut rates this year. Hopium fades eventually and when it does the hang over is hard. I really thought we were going to hit 420 just for the culture lol the battle begins in the 390s. We make money either way up or...

JB7oh2

First off tomorrow we should have a green day after the week we had and still held 404 there’s some bullish signs we don’t make the moves we have without profit taking pullbacks. Lots going on this short week, Tuesday PMI & existing home sales, Wednesday the long awaited FOMC minutes report is released, Thursday jobless claims/ GDP QoQ Q4 Friday core PCE/ new home...

JB7oh2 Updated 

These old heads are freaking out today talking about 50 points next meeting smh they have no idea but then again who does? It’s like I said in the comments yesterday since CPI numbers started dropping months ago the algos were set to buy and they did followed by technical analysis buying followed by short squeeze covering followed by FOMO fear of missing out and...

JB7oh2

WOW what is going on man! Yields are up 10 year at 3.80 6 month t bills at 5% this stuff is wild we have not flinched. This is not normal by any means, yields go up market should go down if you follow me you know this by know. The more expensive money is with rates high the worse it is for growth in the economy but it’s like no one cares anymore for now. Now...

JB7oh2

CPI 6.4 came in around what I was thinking 6.5 but the lag on housing is messing things up with rent which takes about a year for the price of lower rent to kick in remember 40% of CPI is shelter. Oil prices dipped with news about the sell we are doing which should help at the pump in a few weeks. We also had bonds green and market green at the same time today....

JB7oh2

Todays price was no surprise it’s the usual front load before CPI just a little risk on. Since the October low the market has priced in a cold winter that didn’t happen, China lockdown that is opening back up slowly and fed rates that have been planned. What’s next to price in looking forward is inflation what kind of landing are we going to get the. With the...

JB7oh2

Another big week ahead but nothing bigger than CPI and it’s different this time I’m expecting a big head fake with the new way they are calculated. This report will be tricky to understand due to the changes since it will no longer be based on 2 year data it will be 1 year data which is good I think. Energy, cars and homes will be less which is good we don’t buy a...

JB7oh2

Today’s action was lead by googles news on bard and 4 fed talkers staying hawkish. But we have a strong daily pattern of a outside inside bar setup this normally leads to a big move and honestly it’s getting a little late for the bulls to buy it up further giving the bears some breathing room. With almost 70,000 jobs lost this year so far earnings calls are...

JB7oh2

Poor J Powell only makes 190k a year and that’s salary no overtime pay, how does the most popular guy in the last year make it, I thought the saying was always pay your accountant good lol. Most people hate JP but the robots love him, today’s action shows you when the robots are off and when they are turned on. To start the day sideways barley moving that was all...

JB7oh2 Updated 

Looks like tomorrow is being loaded with puts at 410 and 405 for Powells speech, your guess is as good as mine as to what he’s going to say. 12:40 Wall Street time. Today’s yields were ripping that’s not a good sign for bulls also meme stocks are taking off that’s also a bad sign for bulls and the daily candle show’s confusion. So pretty much I don’t care about...

JB7oh2

If the spy balloon would have been shot down on Thursday or Friday I really do believe the market would have dropped over -2% the uncertainty of where it would land and what would be destroyed also casualties then China how would they retaliate I mean a lot of uncertainty. Of course it should have been popped they did the right thing by waiting for it to be over...

JB7oh2

After the close today earnings were not good for Google Apple and Amazon which of course caused a selloff. Today’s market showed a lot of strength I don’t think the earnings numbers are going to matter much when everyone is buying the dip. Tomorrow morning we have unemployment and nonfram payrolls for January if the numbers are low or flat we are taking off on a...