JetSpark

JetSpark

As always we must look for channels in which price is moving on a bigger timeframe, this one is in 4h candles giving a good medium term channel which it has respected at least 2 times before, so my idea is to wait for a breakout and retest or a reasonable rejection at this point positioning trades following price as we allways say.... don't go against the trend!

JetSpark

The question is the same "where the price is heading?" well... first of all you have to look in many dimentions and what i am exposing here is: what did it do the last 2 times price reached 380$ far away from 200 ema on daily chart is a corrective wave! as one of the most "must be aware" theory is... "too far - too fast, lead to correction" I am a long term trader...

JetSpark

following last year prediction, xauusd is really near 2500 as predicted by adding wave 3 now the size match trend lines, i think this will do a short-term sharp retrace for wave 4 followed by short term wave 5 probably ending diagonal, than will start a bigger wave 4 wich will be more complex on the way to fish long term wave 5, than... "The" long term retrace

JetSpark

for Elliott wave traders probably everybody see that the previous down trend was a correction of wave 2 and now on the way to wave 3 which will have to pass through 2075 but we have already a big bullish not-stop rally which will stop at some point loosing momentum and that's why i think it will retrace to take some breath making a Higher low on daily timeframe,...

JetSpark

i count an impulsive 5th extension wave within bigger 3rd wave they can extend maximum 261.8% to 1950 but by that will be outside the main descending trendline i suppose will be a small retrace (wave4) at trend to get higher with wave 5 as shown in green The second probability is that it will not extend that far and falling forming wave 4 to extend 5th wave at...

JetSpark

i believe it's a corrective double three, by drawing trend lines i see a channel that fits a double corrective waves (wxy) witch can be approximately the same size as previous fall, the invalidation will be price to get higher than last high.

JetSpark

this downtrend is an impulse and i count a allready 5 waves so probably we are on a corrective wave up or a big sideways, anyway i will buy the dips until it reaches tp's at fibonacci levels i do not know how many will be hit

JetSpark

we are in range of previous dump and took long time to reach it this is a basic ABC flat wave which the last C wave can reach previous high (before the dump) and can even extend further but i will target previous high as target the rest can be a bonus.

JetSpark Updated 

price breakout main upward channel and looking like forming a triangle at the edge of it, so in the case it breaks out on downside we can assume it's going for volume targets at visually obvious ranges in yellow boxes and becouse they are still far we will have to look at the reaction at those levels step by step, cheers trade safe trade smart.

JetSpark

we do see a smaller downtrend and the question is "will it break the upchannell?" the probability is increasing due to a smaller double bottom formed as shown in the chart with a correction in progress, this mean it's ranging and more traders will get in, so the next conformation of a new downtrend will be the break of present upchannell

JetSpark

this downtrend is counted by at least 3 waves with retracement in progress, tp1 taken tp2 in progress and a breakout of the channel could mean going for tp3 but if tp3 is not going to happen than will be a sign to be a bigger impulse going more deeper

JetSpark

we have an upward channel that has not retraced but did a triangle instead, for big movements always need retrace to grab liquidity but it did not, so probably buyers will cash at some point around 2120-1250 letting bears do the retrace needed to go further.

JetSpark

we are in an uptrend channel and had a big impulsive push from Bank crisis and those few days made the big move but the panic buy has decelerated and the structure of the wave is complete so from now on will be a corrective wave to the bottom side of the uptrend

JetSpark

By Neo Wave in this downtrend i count a "Xwave" happened already, there can be only one more and looks a triangle to me, do not know the size of it but if in the few weeks ahead this start consolidating and not falling under the previous bottom we can assume Dollar has bottomed and ready to be strong again.

JetSpark

based on this impulse wave inside the trend line, i set up my take profits based on the impulse rules it always make an "extension wave" some may call "pullback" and those are the main trades i do because they have clear fixed tp's. you may want to wait until it finishes wave 5.

JetSpark

stick to the trend! is one of the best strategies, and by drawing trend line from the lower-low to the higer-low and clone the line we see it has a clear upward channel, some times basec technique gives me the best and clear target.

JetSpark

this trend breakout happened fast so this needed to consolidate a long time and we are near the end of the consolidation, it made a perfect jump at 161% fibonacci, it's just to figure out all the possibilities by the wave rules wich they make all the same patterns over and over, so i stick by the patterns and found the 2 most probably patterns and shared them here...

JetSpark

the first fibonacci in the left side of the chart is the first clue of the bottom of the downtrend by making a flat correction (A and B) wich lead to a strong C at allmost 161% of fibonacci, this next wave is a bullish correction, some could call it a bullish flag is still the same, everytime after a big bounce in a short time it has to "correct" the too fast...