Koch0617

Koch0617

Looking at the SPY chart going back to 2016 range (yellow rectangle) and completion of 0.382 retracement from this tear's high and low we have, at minimum, a test of the recent low which is only a 0.382 extension. But an AB=CD extension takes us down to 141!

Koch0617

Gold broke through resistance with an Uptrend WW completing right at 3 areas of confluence. Intermediate target line suggests 1454, where 3 areas of confluence exist. In addition just above strong support, so expect the low point to tip is toes into this zone before reversing. Target of larger, long-term WW is still ~ 1413. At this point I'm selling just out of...

Koch0617

This simply illustrates two points: (1) How Pt 4, if identified beforehand, can be quickly profitable. It goes straight up and very quickly (2) Note that it returned to our SNR or supply & demand zone with a 0.786 retracement along with two wicks being formed on the 4 hour bars. Conclusion: Our SNR zone held and we can expect gold, now to go well below $1450 to...

Koch0617 Updated 

As suggested from yesterday's premarket post too many confluences to ignore on Friday's close. Gold headed down to 14542 - 1450 level, then up to 1464 at thick red down slooping line, before moving towards final target of ~$1413. Possible new entry WW will be formed along the way to go short once again.

Koch0617

Closer look at chart in H4 TF Shows that reversal point was a Point 4 WW. Notice how quickly profits can be made if you identify the Point 4. One bar was an $11 dollar rise in Gold and Wave 5 completed. Again the WW 1-4 TL points to $1444 area where a longer term reversal comes in per my previous chart. So if analysis is correct Gold should fall around $18-20...

Koch0617 Updated 

Will not comment on how the market immediately reversed after my final post of last Friday. Gold went through SNR at 1456 in a matter of an hour and was up $9. I was at a rehearsal for graduation on Saturday. I had not place a SL in place!! By the time I had figured out what was going on - possibly a 0.382 retracement off of Monthly bars, I was down $7.50/per...

Koch0617

As its Friday, Asian trading is closed and Europe will close in another 2-3 hours, this will be my last post for today. As suggested, the support (1456.4) - solid dark blue line - was clearly broken and immediately began to move towards and low reached Wednesday. I should have bought back a contract at that point, since, as I mentioned earlier today, Wave 3...

Koch0617

Today's early morning trading after waking up to find my 3 short contracts down -$450 and the ST trend up. What shall I do? Follow the numbers to see my thinking and analysis in real time. Thanks for listening.

Koch0617

Updated with more clarity. Back to nearly where I was 19 hours ago in average 3 short positions of Dec Gold at 1456.8 Now trying to break through short term resistance from yesterday that is now acting like support at 1458.7 Who is stronger? Buyers or sellers? Follow the drama. Thanks for listening.

Koch0617

Well I missed exiting one contract by 1 tic yesterday and this morning awakened to find the my minor zone of resistance on the 15 minute TF was exceeded. Down about -$450 dollars. Switched to XAUUSD - did not know TV had it - and got realtime data When I redrew it I included it, I was now looking for point 3 on a new WW and found it using three entirely different...

Koch0617

Looks like a new WW is forming with a target in the area of 1449.6 Lot's of confluence at yesterdays low, which is near weekly support. Still looking for final target of ~ 1413 Presently down from entry by $1.75 and currently sitting at 4 hour support at 1455 If broken, next support at 1453. So will buy back a contract at 1449.80. Confluence area.

Koch0617

If you followed my posts from yesterday, you'll see that I was looking for another bearish WW to form. WW contracts overall were down -$350 this AM (Africa time). Follow the numbers and see that my first choice for WW 4 retraced back to a double bottom. This made me suspicious and so I looked for another WW (orange numbers). Even though I sold at that point. Made...

Koch0617

Remember yesterday how I said that the breakout from the ledge would probably retrace. It hits its target on the 15 minute and will now retrace to SNR resistance zone and 0.618 retracements ~ 1458.90 Two orders to go short Dec Contract in ~ 1458.70 Let's see what happens

Koch0617

So here around noon (Africa time) I'm in the middle of consolidation on the 15 minute chart and I notice a near perfect ledge shaped WW forming. I'm short one contract and long 1450 puts. I add another short - takes me to the end of my margin - at 1458.90 And the ledge breaks. I close one of the contracts at the width of the ledge ~ $2 for a quick $200, but I'm...

Koch0617

So I've overshoot, but I have an incredibly steep Target line. Wave 4 retraces some which then gives me an alternative target line that's a bit more reasonable. I wake up with a loss from the retracement over the night to point 5. But my trend line is intact and I stay the course. NOTE: In all of this I'm aware of Support and Resistance and trendlines. When...

Koch0617

So I start making profits and gold goes down to 1464 and then quickly retraces to 0.786 level. A $8 move against me. 0.786 and 0.63 are very common retracements off of point 5. Painful to wait through. But this gives me a potential new WW with the former WW 5 becoming a new 1 and the 1464 a new 2 and the retracement to 1472. So now I know I'm going to have an...

Koch0617

Following my previous post we note a sharp reversal at what might be a new WW pt 2 developing on Nov 26th, mid-morning in the USA. How do I know? The reversal point is a point 4 from another WW on the 1 hour time frame. How do I know? Study how Wave 4 forms intently and you can predict Wave 4 very accurately. Matter of fact, if you know where point 4 will...

Koch0617

Wolfe Waves work! Here is GOLD Dec contract from early last week. Notice something very important. Wave 3 to Wave 4 is always an a-b-c wave. In this case its a measured move Entry had very limited risk. If point 5 overshoots, expect it to be no more than 1.27-1.5 x height of Wave 4 Look at the target, could go as low as 1410 - 20, which makes it >$150 move in...