US PMI figures are falling from the peak 63.7 to 53.1, and many investors are concerned of a downturn. Its increasingly likely, but not yet...
You can see that many major SP500 market declines didn't occur until the PMI figure reached 50; May 1998 , Oct 2000, Oct 2007. The last was Sep 2019 and the market kept rallying until Feb 2020. The trend is certainly...
This year we've seen yields trade higher and equities lower, and breakdown of the uncorrelated relationship driven by inflation and rate rise expectations.
However, 9th May may have marked the turning point. Yields are moving in step with equities, a return to the 'normal' relationship (and diversification).
So Equities and bonds are sniffing out the probability...
US inflation figures just released show higher than expected, but slowing. Markets responded with another move down of 80bps.
However supply/demand and technicals indicate we may be bottoming.
Volume profile: low volume through 4000-4100 cleared, and S&P500 entering large volume range / Support Zone at 3750-4000.
Quite a wide range, so S&P 500 high chance of ...
Three years ago the HK protests focused our attention on the US dollar to HK dollar linked exchange rate. Back then, we speculated whether the relationship could hold in the face of Chinese ambitions, extreme levels of leverage and the US-China ‘trade war’. With some of these factors back in play, it’s worth revisiting.
Back in 2019 the band was approaching the...
As we now hit 3,300 in the S&P500 (SPX), the below chart visualises where the index level stands relative to its recent past. The chart presents how the SPX is at a short-term extreme, similar to this time two years in Jan-18, right before the >10% drop.
Summary:
You can see this when comparing the recent moves to its 200 day moving average (200D MA). Today...
