MacroView_Research

MacroView_Research Updated 

There is no doubt copper's move is substantial as chart chasers crowd on a few group think narratives: Inflation is around the corner. Is it? Headline inflation in the United States in 1.47 percent. To put that in perspective, it's down four percent from July 2008 highs of 5.4 percent. To add further perspective to that, inflation is cyclical. It has risen,...

MacroView_Research

The relief rally across risk assets is welcomed. Yes, welcomed. The greatest thing about rallies such as this, is that they help alieviate technically oversold (or overbought - check out our gold call !) conditions. Crude oil is no different. From a technical standpoint, crude fell over 15 percent in short order since we pointed out the strong supply zone on...

MacroView_Research

Gold has had a great run since our last outlook from our first and secondary levels of support, and price action has been able to climb through our intermediate target of $1,301. However, due to the potential U.S. election upset by Donald Trump, the decline in the U.S. dollar and general market turmoil, the gains in the yellow metal have come quickly. Near-term,...

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As tweeted earlier , the Euro Stoxx 50 chart is looking very weak. While near-term technicals dip into oversold territory, the projection is for price action to head lower. Today's session saw a close underneath the post-Brexit uptrend, and we are likely to see a move to 2,900 to 2,915 -- or the 61 percent retracement from mid-December. The momentum of the...

MacroView_Research

There is no question that credit markets have been distorted for a long-term, but, fortunately, if you are in tune with what is going on it help get you out of the way of a steam roller. High-yielding junk debt has been a huge trade this year as investors continued to seek yield despite valuations and a clear crowed trade. The chase for performance also led...

MacroView_Research

Caterpillar is known for being a global economic bellwether, and considering it recent stock performance you'd think economic activity is alive and well. Unfortunately, this is not the case. In fact, despite CAT "beating" its recent Q3 earnings estimates (which rely heavily on accounting gimmicks), the global mining and construction company reported that all is...

MacroView_Research

After the Brexit referendum vote on June 23, 2016, it’s apparent the United Kingdom is facing legal challenges invoking Article 50, making it official the UK is formally leaving the EU. Article 50 states that any member state may leave “in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”, this ambiguity has encouraged Remainers and Brexiters to use political...

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The Mexican peso has remained volatile due to numerous factors, including the price of crude oil, prospects of the Brexit and, more interestingly, the potential of a Donald Trump presidency in the U.S. The USDMXN had been on a steady bullish trend, and the peso's dramatic nine percent decline going into the first U.S. debate on September 26 was largely in part to...

MacroView_Research

It's been about seven sessions since we first issued our real time rating on XLE as bearish, and we still believe there will be opportunity to the downside. Volatility should continue as headline risk prompts uncertainty in the markets. Even if Saudi Arabia did happen to freeze or reduce production, it could not be enough in the long-term to offset production by...

MacroView_Research

Our pre-Jackson Hole note put into perspective the potential outcomes of both a dovish and hawkish tone from Fed speakers and the impact it would have on, then, current technicals. As expected, Fed Chair Yellen's speech lacked little inspiration. However, it was Vice Chair Fischer that provided the hawkish fireworks just as the dollar was grinding on...

MacroView_Research

The Brexit vote was a done deal, or at least the markets thought so. After watching risk assets climb for an outcome to close to be a sure thing, we really can't expect anything else to happen then: $GBPUSD falling over 10 percent at the lows, hitting a 30-year low. Was the move dramatic? Yes, but it wasn't unexpected. There are a few factors traders must take...

MacroView_Research

Global Equities are experiencing a relief rally after a bizarre turn on events. For some reason, the brazen murder of British M.P Jo Cox turned the increasingly large "leave" vote around, and the "remain" vote regained the led heading into Thursday's Brexit vote. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index jumped off of technical support of 2,814 but still remains in a clear...

MacroView_Research

With the Brexit referendum vote on Thursday (6/23), markets are still volatile and uncertain with whether or not British voters will decide on leaving the European Union. As the Brexit polls began indicating that the "leave" vote began leading into this week on gaining momentum, the perplexed media were at odds on how to exactly explain the "phenomena." First,...

MacroView_Research

Silver has seen an unexpected rally to most and continues to show strength as holdings of silver-backed ETFs reach all-time highs. Since posting "Potential Inflection in SLV: Price Action and Options," (under CommoditiesTrader) SLV is up almost 22 percent. However, near-term there will be a correction to work off the overbought conditions. The RSI was quite...

MacroView_Research

On May 9, MacroView issued a short idea on AUDUSD and highlighted the strong correlations with copper and gold, which we would see the trifecta fall 2.93 percent, 4.90 percent and 6.68 percent respectively. We've seen all three etch out bottoms in early June, yet copper is retesting those lows on unexpected increases in inventories. The AUDUSD went big following...

MacroView_Research Updated 

Tomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution. MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the...

MacroView_Research

The U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart,...

MacroView_Research

Gold is testing lower levels of support as market participants aim to price in a potential rate hike in June by the Federal Reserve. While intraday price action is oversold, the daily chart is indicating further selling could continue to below $1,230. If a close below this key level occurs, traders can expect XAUUSD to reach $1,215. Subscribers of MacroView's...