Despite briefly dipping below 12, based on this chart interpretation the VIX is still poised for a rather large spike this summer. First trigger would be a move over ~14 then a push through major resistance ~19.50 - 20 would probably see a rapid ramp towards the low 30's. This would roughly correlate to a 20-30% correction in the SPX. Watch to see if the VIX can...
Today's price action took AAPL up to confluence of 50% fork resistance, prior pivot from April 2012 of $644 as well as TL extension backtest. Counter trend traders could look to short this area with a stop on a close above $645.
Likely that $113.20-50 zone and then 96.15-25 zone will be useful areas for bulls to lean against for a pivot. Based on dual fib confluences.
As I noted when I first posted this chart mid April, the 1275 level is a key support for gold. Today that support was busted. Unless bulls can rally gold back over 1275 and close a weekly candle over that figure gold will likely probe last years lows ~1200. My gut tells me that level will not hold (triple bottoms are not usually good lows) and 1050 then 950 comes...
There is no real reason to believe the bond rally is over. Bullish structure and bullish price action. Shorts will just fuel the gentle squeeze higher.
Bollinger band sell signal / lack of band expansion / lack of volume confirmation of new all time highs is troubling. If this sell pans out, expect at least a test of midpoint (20 sma) fairly soon.
This is an update of a chart I published 10 months ago: I have not moved any trendlines.
When price drops below upper channel boundaries it typically will fall to at least the upper line on the lower channel. This is currently ~ 1620 or 14% lower.
Price has been rejected by intraday trend lines as well as the 2/3SD Bolly bands.
Just how my eyes are seeing this. For me the short term pattern looks bearish with an inverted cup with handle pattern. Also there is a confluence of down trend line resistance as well as Head / Shoulder neckline extension resistance. Above 1360 this looks more bullish, below 1275 and gold could crash back to for another retest of the 1200 round number.
Just a possible scenario. Measured time and price for symmetrical top would equate to a July low before a significant bounce would be likely. Just a theoretical scenario.
Classic double bottom with flagging ascending triangle. Breakout on 6 hour candle close above 110. Fib extensions and measured move targets range from 113-119. Likely resistance around 115. This chart looks bullish which indicates potential equity under performance in the near term as well.
Lower highs still tell the tale of a bearish chart. $540 a tough nut to crack. Looks lower to test ~515 / ~507 / ~495. Above 555 on daily close negates bearish scenario.
Pattern looks bearish to me. Below 98 and test of 90 next. Above 105 on a daily close negates my bearish view.
Structure suggests a spring / summer market correction. Above 20 VIX and low 30's is certainly possible.
Could be a nearterm bounce in order here but overall I believe the third time is the charm for the SPY. At the least a test if the purple 250 period MA seems reasonable but 179 would not surprise me on a wave 1 down and if the that does not hold then 170-172 could happen fast.
Above $25 on a 2-hour candle close gives price room to test gap res ~ $28. Below $21.50 brings test of support at $19 into play. No position. Good luck!
Watch this carefully