MikeSpy

MikeSpy

Every finance youtuber has been singing about an incoming market crash, recession and all sorts of doom for the past year during this unprecedented (very precedented?) bull run after yields inverted. Just going by the usual patterns and the technicals I would guess that the real pain wont start until April or May, that is based on how bonds uninverted in both...

MikeSpy

It's been a long time since I posted. My next move is Alto Neuroscience. What I am looking at is an inverse head and shoulder. I think a lot of people doubt this company because it's just another pharma company and see it as a risky trial phase play. But these guys have a trick up their sleeve, they are juicing their trials by looking for bio-markers that make...

MikeSpy

So I took the log scale of SPY and copied the pattern of our august correction and placed it on top of April, I then added the Ichimoku cloud and it looks like the pattern would be bouncing at support and resistance and bottom at a relatively reasonable point around 470. I expected a bounce at some point because we aren't going to go straight down, so I wanted to...

MikeSpy

Anyone who has gone to the gas station has seen the price trickling up every week, from looking like it was approaching $3 to now headed towards $5 in just the last few months. With tensions and uncertainty in the middle east and rising inflation combined with the fed deciding there will be no rate cuts anytime soon the market is ready to correct. I have been...

MikeSpy

Every guy on youtube is saying "its time to crash, recession mcdonalds prices, wendys surge price, tech layoffs, banking crisis, civil war, world war three, inflation is BACK, Look out below, The crash has just begun, we were never in a bear market, until NOW!" It is so tiresome. But this is what they are all looking for so I guess keep this in the back of your...

MikeSpy

Just thinking about what the fed will do in the upcoming 2 meetings, inflation is still sticky, I feel we get 2 meetings where there are no rate cuts and if the market looks shaky and inflation comes down I think that the June 10th meeting gives us the first cut. Usually following cuts we see recession, I am thinking and hoping it will be light and we can get...

MikeSpy

Bears are getting rekt, and then rekt, and then rekt, and then rekt, and then they see the catalyst... rekt... and another one? rekt! Is it their time though? US 2 year is the same place as it was in Nov 22 US dollar is where it was in December 22 Both up significantly from the December 13th fed meeting. Can the SNP500 finally show weakness? SUPER DUPER...

MikeSpy

Bulls have been laughing their way to the bank. Recently saw a political/finance streamer talk about how "The SNP500 is looking strong, inflation is down, we had a soft landing, I think now is a good time to buy" I get the feeling that is the general sentiment of the market, I think people have blinders on to the market risks. We saw some tech layoffs the past...

MikeSpy

All throughout this rally Bears have been calling for an inverse head and shoulders. We never got it and so many retail put buyers got absolutely REKT during the squeeze to 4600. At this point though it looks like all of our overbought signals are finally rolling over and turning bearish. We cracked the rising channel that we painted after the squeeze to 4500...

MikeSpy

Well the market has really stunned a lot of us bears, we were all calling for the inverse head and shoulders and we never got it, the market just kept rallying and rallying. Wouldn't it be funny if we got a an inverse h&s after all? I am seeing us as very overbought and am expecting that we may get some kind of a pull back or a sell off in the coming weeks,...

MikeSpy

Wojack was still broke, he was still living under the bridge, he had developed a mild case of gangrene but was able to move around using an old shopping cart and a broomstick that had been used to shoe him away from the Wendy's Dumpster. Wojak thought to himself "maybe I am rich now, Maybe Oxen has reached its all time high, Maybe it has finally gone to $1000...

MikeSpy

A lot of folks predicting an inverse head and shoulders got absolutely rekt on friday. Thursday marked the downswing and retail piled into puts. But the market squeezed them out. Then after hours Moodys hit the market with a downgrade. In the past this has lead to a 2-4% sell-off. The question is how soon can it happen? I decided to manifest the bearish dream,...

MikeSpy Updated 

Based on how bullish this week has been, the RSI climbing to a high for the past few months and the McLellan really outperforming the previous 2 bounces, I feel that this bottom is the real deal and SPY has officially turned bullish. Unlike before where rejection at resistance brought us to lower lows, we should theoretically form a higher low when we pull back...

MikeSpy

Market is in full on panic, between the middle east and the rates everyone is predicting an economic collapse and WWIII. Youtubers are going wild "THE BEGINNING OF THE END" blah blah blah. Fed is going to pause and the situation in the middle east is unlikely to escalate. Protests opposing Israel's intervention are at their peak. There was an angry mob in...

MikeSpy

We are oversold big time. Price tanked, rallied and then dumped to end the session, but the dump did not make new lows. That makes me think there is some strong demand at these levels. I have placed some 413 calls that expire tomorrow (small bet) Looking for a nice rally up towards 417. I think we will probably hit that and then dump back down to 412 leading into...

MikeSpy Updated 

Futures is showing some oversold technicals on the 1hr timeframe. What I want to see is a bounce into the speech. I want to see people get their hopes up for a an announcement that the hikes are over and then the market to flush after Powell announces that inflation is still entrenched and sticky. We could get some buyers to end Friday, it seems like everyone...

MikeSpy

SPY futures have formed a channel, with a CR passed and shutdown fears temporarily avoided, it is possible that the market may try to fill the gap. Watch for a breakout to the downside or upside. We may follow this channel for the entire week and breakout Friday with the job numbers, or there may be a surprise catalyst like moodys - although I doubt they will...

MikeSpy

Well I think SPY might be able to pull off a repeat motion that replicates the movement of the last month. I think fear is at extremes today the shutdown was confirmed. A deal will end up getting made shortly and the market will start to rally once fear is gone. The fed comes back into play at the end of October, we may see fear ignite again as the fed will be...