It may be counterintuitive when we know that inflation is very high but the market would appear to be struggling to get a breakout to yields above 3%. This could indicate a strong possibility of recessionary / deflationary forces outweighing inflation.
But will it hold? The recent trend has been mixed. I see a clear downward channel as drawn here, intersecting with a longer term up trend. So far there has been no impulsive move either way recently but I think something will happen soon.
This chart is on a 21 day timeframe and shows that the current situation on bond yields looks like the start of a retracement down from resistance. Added to this, the RSI is at a rare high point not seen since 1994. Even if we are at the start of a new bear market in bonds / bull market in yields retracements are going to happen, same as in any market.
The down trendline held on Amazon and there is a now a scenario where a trade could come into play if the price gets squeezed between the two corners of this triangle. The question is will it be a breakout or a breakdown?
This PnF chart shows a significant move higher for the Nasdaq in the last couple of trading sessions. I would expect the move to encounter strong resistance at the 12300 level. If we can get above these red lines then it is possible this nasty sell off was just a big correction. We are not there yet at all.
This recently formed triangle DXY pattern could mean that a strong move is imminent. A triangle is often a continuation pattern so given that we are in an uptrend this would seem more likely.
The recent swing up in Oil looks like it is now on shaky foundations. An O on this chart printed below the fairly recent uptrend line. Bearish move on oil. Energy stocks and banks may weaken.
The previous chart I had, showed a parallel channel for the current down trend. The price broke below this channel so I've deleted it and replaced it with what appears to be a falling wedge pattern. The previous fib levels simply did not make sense from a resistance/ support point of view so I changed the setting to be based on log values. I think there is...
There is an air pocket below this level. It is very vulnerable to further downside. However Bitcoin dos have this trick it pulls of sometimes where it 'wicks down' ie goes below a support level for a short time only. This point and figure chart shows the printing of 2 Os below the 2017 high.
It does not look particularly obvious but I can just about draw a head and shoulders pattern on this gold chart. Could be a potential drop on the way?
One of the main things that has been hurting many asset classes of late has been the US dollar strength as shown by the pump above resistance on the DXY chart. Now I see signs of a pullback from an over extended rally with RSI divergence on the chart. This could bring some temporary relief to other markets.
This major downleg on the Nasdaq Futures looks like it may be forming a broadening descending wedge pattern which could be a future trade setup on a confirmed breakout.
Yesterdays sell off sees a move below the previous downward sloping channel with a bounce going on currently. This looks very close to capitulation. There is probably support at about the 20,000 level as that was approximately a long term high previously.
A fairly good sell signal here with previous low being exceeded in a meaningful way. This does not mean 'go short' right now but is a crisp and clear indicator that there could be more downside to come.
The US 10 year treasury yield has just breached this level of the previous peak. If the debt market continues to sell of and the DXY (also spiking up) then things are really going to get interesting.
After a long period of consolidation the Bitcoin price has finally dropped 10% and currently is sitting on the lowest line of the downward sloping channel. This is a dangerous moment because there is now going to be very strong resistance above this price. Even if there is a bounce it could very quickly rebound with velocity and plummet below the channel for a major crash.
Gold in pounds has staged a breakout from a short term triangle this week but to me it looks insipid and not powerful. The long term picture to me looks like a bearish rising wedge pattern. I will not be convinced about this being a new bull market until the all time high is solidly breached.
Mixed picture here. The US 2 year yield which is usually predictive of the Fed funds rate has pushed higher than a line of long term resistance. It is possible to look at this as a breakout from a grand supercycle falling wedge after a previous false breakout. The RSI chart has a rolling over / topping look to it which may indicate that this rally in yield will...