MujkanovicFX

MujkanovicFX

The EURUSD faced strong selling pressure right at 1.10 level and the exchange rate followed the path of the yield differentials, as explained in today's EURUSD analysis. Daily candle is now quite bearish.

MujkanovicFX

Part 2/2: Looking at the recent developments in interest rate differentials, it looks like a small divergence has formed between the pair and German/US 2y yields. This could be a bearish sign in the short-term.

MujkanovicFX

Part 1/2: Hi traders, the EUR/USD pair has another attempt to break above the 1.10 resistance on the daily chart, following a new sell-off in the US dollar and optimism about a joint EU recovery fund. Better-than-expected PMI numbers coming from Europe this morning also pushed the euro higher, and we're now waiting for PMI reports from the US. The euro still...

MujkanovicFX

Here's a comparison between the S&P500 and the FTSE 100, although most other major indices could also be used (DAX, CAC, etc.) The FTSE is having difficulties to reach fresh marginal highs, which may provide some hints for today's S&P 500 open. S&P reached the 61.8% Fib level on the daily, which aligns with a strong resistance level (possible triple top). The...

MujkanovicFX

Part 1/1 Hi traders, here comes an update on the EURUSD pair. If you have any questions or suggestions, let's start a discussion on the trade in the comment section below. We're only taking a trade once all rules of our trading strategy are satisfied! 1. Technicals : Neutral/Bearish - The EURUSD pair is still in a downtrend unless we see a decisive break above...

MujkanovicFX

Hi traders, this is a quick update on GBPUSD. Here we have the GBPUSD pair that reached a key resistance on the daily chart after triggering a massive head and shoulders pattern. The pair has started to move lower today, as explained in our previous analysis, with market reports also pointing at a weaker GBP. The 1-hour chart shows a well-defined falling channel...

MujkanovicFX

Part 2: Here's the correlation chart for AUD/NZD. Interest rate differentials pretty much match the current spot price, so it's the Australian vs New Zealand stock market ratio that we're focusing on (blue line) The chart shows a strong divergence between the exchange rate and the AU/NZ stock markets, which hints at the possibility of a stronger NZD in the coming period.

MujkanovicFX

Hi traders, here we have the AUDNZD pair, a pair that has been in a strong uptrend since mid March after China reported upbeat post-corona market reports and the RBNZ pointed at negative interest rates. Now, the pair is trading at an important resistance level and at the upper resistance of a bearish wedge pattern. The pair formed an indecisive doji candlestick...

MujkanovicFX

Hi traders, Here's a comprehensive analysis of the GBPUSD pair, which could be worth watching this week. I'll keep the description short and in bullet points: 1) NEWS NARRATIVE The pound came under selling pressure the previous week after the UK announced there's not much progress in trade talks with the EU. Time is passing by, and trade talks will likely...

MujkanovicFX

German and US 2-year yield differentials provide a contrarian signal to our other analysis results, which is another sign that traders need to be cautious with the pair. Gold (green, inverted), which trades a marginal record highs, keeps following the pair. Any USD strength could push gold price lower from current levels and cause a break below the daily support...

MujkanovicFX

Hi traders, The EUR/USD pair lacked direction during this trading week but is likely going to close slightly higher. The recent push to the upside was fueled by weaker-than-expected US retail sales, which came in -16.4% vs -12% expected. The economic surprise index is still quite low for the US dollar, with a score of 3 out of 10, while positioning remains...

MujkanovicFX

The AUDNZD pair reached an important support on the daily chart and formed powerful reversal patterns near the 1.00 round-number. The ASX 200 and NZX 50, and AU/NZ yield differentials support higher prices in the coming days. Interesting pair to watch. If you like the analysis, please hit the "LIKE" button to support our work. Thanks!

MujkanovicFX

Hi traders, the USD/JPY pair closed this week's downside gap on a broad USD strength, but the Nikkei and SPX still show a strong divergence to the downside. The dollar index is reaching multi-year highs near 100 and the 2y and 5y US yields don't show to be catching up with the dollar. Positioning in the futures market through last Tuesday show an increasing...

MujkanovicFX Updated 

1) GB/US 2y yields show a strong divergence as the pair collapsed in the last trading week (green line) 2) The free-fall pushed RSI into oversold territory and formed a hidden bullish divergence (with the October 2019 low) 3) Economic surprises still favour a stronger US dollar, which is a headwind for the long setup.Economic surprises for the week March 9-13:...

MujkanovicFX

1) As anticipated earlier, the USD/JPY pair followed the direction of the Nikkei 225 and opened with a significant gap lower today's trading session. 2) The pair retraced at the 61.8% Fib level which aligns with a major horizontal resistance level. 3) Futures positioning supports a stronger JPY vs USD 4) USD Index weakened today in the direction of US 2y, 5y,...

MujkanovicFX

The EUR/CAD pair traded near multi-year highs after a strong sell-off in Brent crude (yellow line, inverted). However, buying pressure seems to be easing and German/Canadian 2y yields show a strong divergence with the current exchange rate. Brent is trading at $33, well below the profitability threshold of US oil producers but above the cost base of Saudi Arabia...

MujkanovicFX

EUR/USD MACRO ANALYSIS: 1) Strong divergence between German/US 2y yields (barchart) and gold (green, inversed) 2) Economic surprises for both currencies neutral (5/10) 3) Risk sentiment could favor a stronger USD in the coming days

MujkanovicFX Updated 

1) Potential double top forming on daily chart, near 6.00 round-number 2) US/TR 2-year yield differentials forming slight divergence 3) RSI forms a bearish divergence 4) Positioning and data support a stronger USD - possible headwind for the setup 5) Break above 6.00 invalidates the idea