MystryBox

MystryBox Aug 3, 2020

This chart is unbelievable. This isn't a penny stock, this is Apple. This is Apple during the worst economic crisis of our lives which is in some ways worse than the Great Depression. What are investors buying at these highs thinking? Are they thinking unemployed people buy expensive phones? Are they thinking the collapse of so many businesses means it's a...

MystryBox Updated  Aug 2, 2020

Ethereum has started to move sharply yesterday and today, now nearing its previous peak made in Feb. If it rises over peaks from Feb 2020 and July 2019, it could very well be starting another big bull run to eventually challenge past highs over $1500. Ethereum is the next largest crypto by market cap after Bitcoin, but IMO has significantly more potential....

MystryBox Updated  Aug 2, 2020

This is a closer view of the resistance lines Ethereum is currently challenging on a daily chart. After the crypto crash in 2018, ETH has consolidated for around 2 years and is now making another move higher. It has broken over significant resistance from previous attempts to move higher at $290 and is challenging resistance at $320. The final previous high...

MystryBox Updated  Jul 30, 2020

I've been waiting for today to arrive as the Q2 GDP print is in and was ugly as expected. The awful number reported (a -32.9% collapse) was expected but I'm looking for some "trigger" that might change the market mood and I've suspected the GDP number could be it. Seeing the worst GDP decline on record, even worse than during The Great Depression, might be a...

MystryBox Updated  Jul 23, 2020

The past doesn't repeat exactly, and I don't expect a repeat of 1929... however, in my opinion we're in a similar deflationary environment and we're 4 months or so from the March bottom of the 2020 crash. I thought it might be interesting to look at the 1929 crash from the point of view of 4 months from the 1929 crash bottom when the market had been rallying. ...

MystryBox Updated  Jul 6, 2020

The 2 hour chart above shows two key shorter-term patterns on the S&P 500 I've been watching. They are also visible on most other time frames up to the daily chart. The first pattern is the Island Reversal that has held as the top of this (bear?) rally so far. Despite all the good news surprises, Fed stimulus, and hopes for a "V" shaped recovery, we are still...

MystryBox Updated  Jun 11, 2020

This is an update of my previous idea showing the multi-year topping pattern happening on the S&P 500. The previous post is linked below in related ideas. Since that post we've had an incredibly aggressive rally, breaking above all estimated rebound levels, closing all gaps in the March decline, and now looking to challenge all time highs. But the big picture...

MystryBox May 23, 2020

Hertz is a 102 year old rental car company with 38.000 employees and over $20 billion in enterprise value. Stock value was $20 just a few months ago and was under $2 after the close on Friday after the bankruptcy announcement. As the price fell the last few months around 45,000 Robinhood users bought the stock on the way down (and who knows how many users on...

MystryBox May 11, 2020

This is a chart of the S&P 500 overlayed with the top 10 stocks Robinhood users have been buying for this bounce. Obviously what they are buying (airlines, car company, cruise lines, etc.) is not performing remotely as well as the S&P 500 index, and so they probably aren't seeing much upside on this bounce. Even worse, when this bounce turns, they are going to...

MystryBox Updated  Apr 30, 2020

This is a more detailed look at the current crash rebound on the S&P 500. The daily chart with a Fib Retrace box shows we've managed to rebound higher than the 50% fib retrace (2788 on the chart) which was my initial call for a reversal point. If we continue higher, the next fib level up is the 62% retrace which is about 2930, around 2% higher from Friday's...

MystryBox Updated  Apr 7, 2020

The last several years have been a massive broadening top on the S&P 500, shown on the chart. The recent crash due to the virus ran prices right down to the lower line of the pattern. We've bounced a bit, and could continue bouncing to the midpoint. Longer term we either consolidate within the pattern, build support and eventually continue higher (the bull...

MystryBox Mar 26, 2020

This chart is a weekly of the S&P 500 priced in ounces of gold. The light yellow line is an overlay of the gold price. This view on the market is interesting for a number of reasons: 1) This is the price pattern the S&P 500 would have if gold was still money like it was in the early 1930's. 2) Some people, including me, think the current market crash is most...

MystryBox Updated  Sep 5, 2019

Fractal shown in graphic suggests we might get a repeat of the ugly market breakdown and decline from Oct/Nov/Dec last year.

MystryBox Updated  Sep 2, 2019

See chart comments above.

MystryBox Updated  Feb 22, 2019

The S&P 500 has had a historic rally since December, but its time is running out. Previous tops in Oct, Nov, and Dec were all rejected around 2800. 2800 will be significant resistance, especially with the index so over extended. Additionally the rally is running in a huge ascending wedge with its terminal apex just over 2800. This top is so obvious, it makes...

MystryBox Updated  Feb 14, 2019

Now that the indexes have broken out of the last major down channel (drawn in blue), the 200 day moving average (in purple) is the next major resistance. The S&P 500 has failed to hold above the 200 DMA three times since Oct 2018. Holding above the 200 DMA is the real test of being in a bull market or not--bull markets hold over the 200 DMA for extended periods...

MystryBox Updated  Jan 30, 2019

Interesting fractal pattern emerging today. Will we finally see a top to this rally?

MystryBox Updated  Jan 8, 2019

SPY has been rebounding from the Dec sell off and looks to be getting tired. The rebound has lately increased in acceleration several times detailed here on a 15 min chart: Shallowest uptend drawn with orange support line, next with green, and latest steep uptend (which has just broken) is in red. Short on the red trendline break (which has already happened). ...