If inflation exists at all but in the playbook of vested interests, to maintain sky-high prices in the grains will require much more than just the reliance on the traditionally levity-laden relationship of the mainstream media with the facts. The fact remains that the world has been in a food production overdrive for many moons by now. Even a makeshift operatic...
This is worth a try here - LONG; Overall environment is a mixed bag, with a strong deflationary bias at the moment. Rates (and the $) is sitting smack in the middle of all possible ranges thus, anything can happen here - and most likely will. If this doesn't turn here (quickly!) then it's no good. (Gotta watch it closely, with narrow stops.)
Sure, the Yen is overly weak on a trade-weighted basis BUT it is the least weak versus the USD! E.g., For any intervention to be effective it ought target just about any other high yielding spread/pair EXCEPT for the USD! Having established that, it is still far more likely that any intervention would target the USD/JPY directly than the rest, if for no other...
Given ANY in- or out-of-sample time series, including purely random, synthetic data, anyone can generate (inflate) ANY Sharpe Ratio by repeatedly applying different trading or investment strategies to the same time series sample! By definition, purely random data has no discernible structure. Consequently, no method can exist to predict such a sequence - I.e.,...
If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in...
... and it is about to roll over. E.g. Sell it ALL!! This is the year (2023) to start the Long March (a familiar theme in Chinese history), to gain full stride, right into oblivion. Namely, the Chinese demographic implosion which has been gathering speed for quite a while now, will hit that country with undeniable force, essentially halving the population in...
(This is the continuation of the previous post - attached - which became overly long.) Currently; SHORT off of that "before last" Stop Hunt @150.125, with very tight stops (<12 pips and excellent R/R ratio), just below major resistance. This is a long term Short Entry attempt. (However, the main set up/position is in the GBPJPY, with superior R/R...
The BoJ, if anything, made it's "guidance" even murkier (as if that were anyway possible) with it's most recent policy announcements. E.g., let's just say that the Yen, currently residing just below the miner-frog's hind quarters, has a better chance to start working it's way higher than otherwise. Simultaneously, the Mexican Peso, having just completed a couple...
It is the case once again for the typical, alternating, virtually daily news bites, decrying "world sugar deficits", "Brazilian yield collapse (due to drought; El Nino)", "record Brazilian Real strength", "rising crude oil prices" versus "record Brazilian harvests", "strengthening USD" and "falling crude prices due to recession fears". The song remains the...
... and giving, and then give some more. Should one lack the inclination to deal with everyday FX volatility (or with the lack thereof) then this is the pair to be SHORT , in George Foreman style, ala; "Just set it and forget it!" Simply put, China's absolute best hope (just a dream, really) to survive it's oncoming demographic (industrial, deurbanization, and...
The Pound found itself rather unimpressed on the heels of the recent inflation data prints. Speculation abound whether there is one more rate hike left in the BoE, before long? (Likely.) Even so, everything (including the kitchen sink) has already been factored into the Pound crosses thus, any short fall in inflation prints from here on out are likely to have...
With all the excess "liquidity" force down everyone's throat, the world over, this carry trade is no exception. This pair can move 10k pips in a heartbeat when 'it' hits the fan (which ought to be sooner than later). On the long run (full cycle) the NZD is not worth 50 yen! (It is actually much closer to 30, after all is said and done.) With a "live" BoJ meeting...
This should be self explanatory. The Loonie should also benefit - including for the long run! - from the global re-centralization toward NAFTA.
While I am not a die-hard fan of FXCM's Yen Basket (much prefer NAFTA + Japan vs. "the World"), this index/basket is clearly working on an turn here. It is still relatively week but has likely put the worst behind it. Now, it is all about acceleration which, judging from past behavior, ought to gain significant momentum. Again, I'd suggest to use this "basket" as...
There is a major break looming in this pair! Not that the Loonie by itself would be the end-all but as part of NAFTA it ought to vaporize the Euro rather effortlessly - just at it's been doing to the Aussie already, for quite a while now. (Now, if they just got rid of their neo-Marxist government and US-esq, deranged, monetary mismanagement ... ;-) On the long...
I fail to grasp the general consensus where the overall impression seems to be that "bad technicals" but "a very pretty fundamental picture"? LME stocks jumped +45% just since January alone! - How is that a "good" fundamental picture? (I must be missing something, especially with China not coming back, in any way resembling past demand.) Long(er) term, one could...
Q: What does the former have to do with the later? A: The intuition in the former (S. Carney) is born out by the later (A. Avila; Fields Medal - 2014) From Scott Carney's website; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Harmonic Trading: Volume One Page 136 The Deep Crab Pattern™, is a Harmonic...
The recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse. IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in. Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports -...
