NicTheMajestic

NicTheMajestic

Hedges for the long weekend ?

NicTheMajestic

VIX Ratio back in the 'dont buy' zone. SKEW Index indicates that puts have a bid.

NicTheMajestic Updated 

- First commodities, then the miners, then the industrial equipment, then the transporters, then the financials... now the hedges are coming off. - See support at 320 and 329. - Ratio says put buildup is over - Ratio usually double bottoms (hits green twice)

NicTheMajestic

- End of day VXN divergence warnings - QQQ Closing at old breakdown high - Not satisfied with 'volume backtest' - Very possible rejection

NicTheMajestic

Could easily blow off to 4500, but the downside risk is building.

NicTheMajestic

- Forming double top - Bearish Divergence on RSI / MFI - IV building up - VIX ratio pointing to short term risk off

NicTheMajestic

- VIX Ratio hit green, this is a 'bottom is near' signal - Rainbow flagging, could mean we deadcat here - Breadth and OI is awful - Near the bottom of the range.

NicTheMajestic

- Clear split from the island top / wykoff distribution of last week - VIX ratio had most of the pressure taken off... for now. - Darkpool indicated that money is flowing out of the market - VVIX correlation signaling weakness. Suggestion is to "play the chop" and not to "marry a position".

NicTheMajestic

The VVIX continues to disagree with the direction of the market

NicTheMajestic

Fed overnight repo's remain elevated. This is pumping liquidity into the markets. Why? This type of activity happens at market bottoms (2008, 2018, Covid). Not at maket tops... unless it is preparedness for something...

NicTheMajestic

www.notion.so *April 2020* ## Geopolitical Nation states are beginning crackdowns. Emerging markets specifically are guarding against capital flights. This is not only a nail in bitcoin's coffin, but a sign of a larger macro issue (see (www.youtube.com)). Turkey, Saudi, Korea... (t.co) (twitter.com) (www.koreatimes.co.kr) (t.co) ## China is making...

NicTheMajestic

- $SPY - Declining breadth - Declining volume - Extended from SMAs - VIX9D Signal - No Rainbow signal - Weakness in oil, fxi, iwm - I don`t trust these 'gap and doji' :poop: - TLDR : No new longs, but no heavy short signal. - Will review the 'value' rotation once NDX tests the 14000 'double top'

NicTheMajestic

Sustashi's other name is Vlad. Putin. Maybe Xi. Anyways, I hope all the zoomers go broke.

NicTheMajestic

Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (Fed selling Treasuries) with VIX.

NicTheMajestic

- Warning signs on the Volatility Rainbow - Warning signs on the Vix Ratio - Cycle Analysis says end of April - Top of trend - Megaphone (broadening) pattern - IWM and FXI carries with it the most risk. QQQ not too far off.

NicTheMajestic Updated 

I had this signal 3 times in the last 3 years

04:27

NicTheMajestic

Describe my indicator setups / templates

NicTheMajestic

IWM / DIA vix signals (usually the least reliable) QQQ, SPY, VVIX creeping up VIX Ratio signaling short term risk IV/HV is asleep Over 20 SMA, Over VWAP Poor volume; high short volume as a %