Observe_Think_Act_Think

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My view for this week My Trades As planned, I did a reversal trade around 11000. I was not quick enough to square it off on the first deep and made losses on the trade. My observations for the day NIFTY did not get rejected at 11000. It closed above 11000 by gaining 1.11% BANK NIFTY gained 1.62%. But It formed a doji candle + Gap opening. VIX...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my last week’s post (link below) I had said 10580-10560 is a very important zone for me to watch. If NIFTY drops below this zone this week, I think NIFTY has started a bearish move, momentum of which is not known this time. If NIFTY continues in the 10700-10920 zone for this week, then I think NIFTY may keep distributing in the zone for some time. There is...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my yesterday’s post I had said Not much to conclude today. The larger picture does not change. I’ll trade when NIFTY breaks out of the 10550-10820 range. Some intra day short opportunities only below 10640. Overall, for the last 2-3 days I was inclined towards a bearish view. I was proved wrong by close above...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my July 15 post, I had said Again tomorrow may be a pause ,range bound day with indecision candle. I don't expect it to cross above 10760. The lower bound is again 10560. The other possibility is continuing the trend towards the 10500 level. NIFTY paused and stayed in the large range of...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my yesterday’s post, I had said I need one more confirmation of close below 10560. This will confirm some sort of intermediate top. I am not sure about tomorrow, maybe a pause or continuation day. Overall this week has clear down bias. Any rise is selling opportunity as long as NIFTY does not close above 10820 I am still waiting for this confirmation. It...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My last week’s view, I mentioned two possibilities (Link below) Possibility 1 : BANK NIFTY starts performing in coming two sessions very strongly and NIFTY rushes to 10800-10900 levels. VIX further drops around 22-23 levels. Possibility 2 : NIFTY fizzles out the rally and drops back or consolidates. Out of this, Possibility 1 played out. My observations...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my yesterdays post I had said Even though the chart looks good, I have a bearish bias for tomorrow and Monday. This is mostly because the whipsaw we saw yesterday. If NIFTY manages to close above the new high by Monday, I’ll be wrong again. I’ll not short, but mostly observe if it crosses 10850. I’ll short NIFTY below 10730. Nothing changes in my view...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

I use multi time frame analysis very heavily. I always establish context for trading before I start the day. For context and levels, please check the following posts prior to July 8 *** Links Below I am always fascinated by day trading - not because of the lure of quick money. But I think it is extremely hard for me. At least it is hard for my personality. It is...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Review of yesterday’s view 1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels. 2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade. 3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989. It was a wrong expectation. NIFTY’s price action is bearish on daily...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Review of my view from yesterday’s post Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000. If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In sync with my weekly view posted *************** Possibilities next week 1) BANK NIFTY starts performing in coming two sessions very strongly and NIFTY rushes to 10800-10900 levels. VIX further drops around 22-23 levels. 2) NIFTY fizzles out the rally and drops back or consolidates. Now for trading action, I do not think this is a good enough reading....

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My last week’s view I’ll do a detailed retrospective below. But quick summary - I was expecting consolidation with downward bias. Even a downward move. This did not happen. The move upward was strong as well. So I was wrong in my reading. My observations for the current week I define and follow the market trend on 4 time frames. Monthly - Down ...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my post yesterday, I had said 1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move. 2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish . 3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my yesterday's post I had said 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow, strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation,...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Review of June 30 Trade Log 1. As i have said in my weekly view, I am more on bearish side and I think this consolidation will result in break of 10240. 2. I'll short on break of 10240. My bearish bias is wrong if NIFTY closes above 10420. I was wrong to assume the breakout is on downside. NIFTY broke out of the range on upside....

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My yeterdays trading Log Nothing to mention. Consolidation in the range. Neither of the trading range boundaries were broken today. My Trades today I did not trade today. My Observations for the day 1. 4th consolidation candle. NIFTY closed -0.10%. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 0.05%. 3. VIX at 29.12. 4. Advance Decline 20 to 29. 5. FII data turned bearish...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My weekly view My trades today 1. I did not trade today. Observations for the day 1. Typical consolidation day on gap down.NIFTY closed -0.68%. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -1.08%. 3. VIX gained 0.61%. There was fear of greater slide down in the morning session, but this did not happen. 4. NSE Advance Decline is 38 to 12. My view for tomorrow 1. Today's...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My monthly View My last week's review My reading last week was I am sure about (~80%) 1. NIFTY to touch above 10300. 2. NIFTY is likely to face strong resistance in the 10300-10600 region. 3. The top end of the range I estimate is 10600-10700 for this week. I somewhat assume (~60%) 4. Less and less volatile as the week progresses. 5. Another...