Ochlokrat

Ochlokrat Updated 

Nervousness is rising ahead of the FED meeting next Wednesday. The markets are now pricing in an interest rate cut of 50 basis points - a bad omen for the US economy. In the short term at least, we therefore expect prices on the NASDAQ (and other indices) to fall.

Ochlokrat Updated 

This is a short-term bearish setup for gold. Now that a small downtrend has been established in the lower time frames, we are aiming for the price to retest the high of the value area of the recent uptrend.

Ochlokrat

This is a short-term, bullish setup for the German benchmark index DAX. Shortly before the publication of the US CPI, the international equity markets appear to be forming a bottom, from which we would like to profit with this trade.

Ochlokrat Updated 

With the NFP, we are likely to see a lot of volatility. We are trying to profit from the expected movements with a long setup in the S&P500. We are waiting for a return to the 5,470-point area first, as this is a prominent area in the volume profile that invites a long entry. We also set our stop loss below a prominent point in the volume profile, which in turn is...

Ochlokrat

The oil market is extremely exciting. The price is currently approaching a long-term support zone between USD 66 and 68. Will the price hold there? In my view, this is questionable. I am taking a bearish stance on WTI for several reasons: First of all, the global economy is sluggish, which is causing demand for oil to fall. As things stand at present, the world's...

Ochlokrat

That was quite a slaughter today, wasn't it? So I'll say it right away: this analysis is no joke. I assume that today's sell-off heralded an imminent rally that will soon take us to new all-time highs. Because from a technical perspective, today we have only touched the 38.2% retracement of the upward movement between August 5 and August 22, 2024. Bearish doomsday...

Ochlokrat Updated 

This doesn't really look good for NVIDIA. The volume profiles in both the larger and the smaller picture look decidedly bearish. To the frustration of the bulls, there is still an untested Implied Fair Value gap (visible in the M5) at around USD 105.20, which “coincidentally” is located at the low of the Value Area of the upward movement since August 5. For this...

Ochlokrat Updated 

Since the S&P500 is showing bearish divergences, we expect a return to the thin structures on the downside. A first potential TP is located at 5,530.50 points and a second TP results from the still open gap (TP @ 5,464.50).

Ochlokrat Updated 

Today is the day: Perhaps the most important company in the world presents its quarterly figures - NVIDIA! In an already volatile market environment, erratic movements are guaranteed. Can NVIDIA meet or even exceed the high expectations? More importantly, how will the share react? Open divergences in the DMI (not shown, as M5) provide us with a clue: This shows a...

Ochlokrat Updated 

Wow! What a dump in SMCI! Is the share now at the end? Possible, but unlikely. In our view, the massive sell-off offers the opportunity for lucrative long trades. We are waiting for a short dip below the USD 400 mark. We choose a conservative TP at USD 484.95 and an aggressive TP at USD 673. Both targets give us extremely lucrative RRRs.

Ochlokrat

A simple roadmap for the NASDAQ for the next week or two, derived from volume zones in the NQ: We could hit the targets below (short term) with the NVIDIA numbers. We then expect significant gains in the NASDAQ with a recapture of the 20,000 point mark.

Ochlokrat

It is not easy for the bulls in the USDCAD at the moment. Since the reversal candle on August 5, 2024, the price has only known one direction: down, without any significant corrections. Is now the time to go long USDCAD? In our view, this would be premature. We assume that the price will test the area of just under 1.33 before there is a significant return to the...

Ochlokrat

This is a simple gap play to an open intraday gap at around 19,630 in NQ. First, we want the market to move down a bit to optimize our RRR.

Ochlokrat Updated 

After a brief period of weakness on Tuesday, the S&P 500 is showing signs of strength again. The market established higher highs and was able to prevent a slide below the 5,550-point mark. For this reason, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and expect the 5,700 mark to be reached soon.

Ochlokrat Updated 

Please note: This is an If-Then setup in the NVIDIA stock. The share price fell quickly and dramatically today. So drastically that the price fell below the low of the value area of the last upward move. This situation offers us the opportunity for a short term long trade We enter this trade under the following condition: We wait for two closing prices within the...

Ochlokrat Updated 

The NASDAQ stalled significantly today at the 61.8% retracement of the downward movement since July 2024. The momentum of the price decline and the inability of the index to recover towards the evening indicates the start of a new phase of weakness. At the same time, there are increasing signs that a pronounced bear market is establishing itself in the NASDAQ and...

Ochlokrat Updated 

Within 14 days, NVIDIA shares have gained more than 43%. The normal madness of the tech star of the last two years. A new ATH has been set. Now... We see things a little differently. We are currently assuming that NVIDIA (like the market as a whole) is setting up a bull trap. However, we initially expect NVIDIA to rise to the USD 132 area before the price turns...

Ochlokrat Updated 

Long idea for the Dow Jones: The overriding trend is upwards. The weekly trend usually continues on Fridays. The RRR of 1:1 is acceptable and worth a try.