OlympusLab

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Fundamental Backdrop The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health. The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause. Technical Confluences...

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Fundamental Backdrop Unemployment Claims decreased from 264K to 242k, far better than the forecast of 253K. This signals an overall healthier economy. Fed Chair Powell will be speaking later on today on the concerns around the status of the US debt ceiling. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 103.500 Next resistance at 105.000 Minor...

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Fundamental Backdrop Employment Change dropped from 61.1K to -4.3k, far worst than the forecast of 24.8K. This shows that consumer spending has decreased leading to overall economic activity dropping. Unemployment Rate increased from 3.5% to 3.7%, which shows overall economic health has weakened significantly Technical Confluences Near-term support at...

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Fundamental Backdrop BOC Gov Macklem Spoke yesterday Higher-than-expected inflation erodes purchasing power Uncertainty in the outlook for inflation creates instability and affect the currency's value. External factors such as Russia's war on Ukraine and disruptions in food prices put pressure on the GBP. Technical Confluences Support at 1.24500 ...

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Fundamental Backdrop Wage Price Index q/q maintained at 0.8% which shows that consumer inflation maintaining could lead the Central Bank to pause interest rates. Tomorrow's employment Change is expected to drop by half and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain the same, indicating a weakening economy. Technical Confluences Near-term support at...

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Fundamental Backdrop US Retail Sales comes out at 0.4% compared to previous print of -0.7%, highlighting the continued resilience of the US economy. This further supports the hawkish stance from Fed and is bearish for GOLD. Technical Confluences Liquidity building at 1970 where price can potentially tap into H4 support level at 1960 which can serve...

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Fundamental Backdrop The Core Retail Sales m/m increased from -0.5% to 0.4% It shows that consumer spending has increased, leading to higher overall economic activity Technical Confluences Near term resistance at 102.800 Next resistance at 103.500 Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we could see price head towards the...

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Fundamental Backdrop The Trimmed CPI y/y dropped from 4.4% to 4.2%, which shows that inflation is dropping. This could lead the central bank to lower interest rates Technical Confluences Resistance at 1.35200 Support at 1.34100 Idea With the CAD expecting to weaken, I'm looking for price to possibly head back up to retest the resistance at...

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Fundamental Backdrop The Claimant Count Change increased from 26.5K to 46.7K This shows that the number of unemployed people has increased, indicating the weakening economic health Technical Confluences Support at 1.24500 Idea With the fundamentals weaking the GBP, I'm expecting price to head towards the support at 1.24500 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE...

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Fundamental Backdrop In light of the strong bullish sentiments surrounding the USD recently, price has made a bearish case for GOLD. Sentiments surrounding USD continues to be bullish with Fed maintaining its hawkish stance in the most recent FOMC meeting. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1959.7 where price can potentially tap into before...

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Fundamental Backdrop ECB hiked rates by 25bps most recently. Fed continues to see heightened inflation and maintains its uncompromising hawkish stance. Empire State Manufacturing Index release later on with market pricing in a negative print. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1.0755 where price can potentially tap into. Price has...

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Fundamental Backdrop Core Retail Sales m/m expected to improve from -0.8% to 0.5% Consumer spending will increase significantly, indicating improved economic activity Unemployment Claims data could be better than expected due to positive CPI and PPI data released last week Friday could be more volatile due to Fed Chair Powell's speech Powell expected to...

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Fundamental Backdrop Inflation Expectations for NZD dropped from 3.30% to 2.79% q/q, causing AUD to drop from 0.68 to 0.668 last week. Wage Price Index q/q is expected to increase from 0.8% to 0.9% this week, which could lead to a stronger AUD. Employment Change is expected to drop by half and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain the same, indicating...

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Fundamental Backdrop Overall, EURUSD continues to be a bullish case on the larger timeframe. There are good reasons to believe in a bull case due to the interest rate differential between EUR and USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently hovering around the previous swing high and bullish momentum has reduced to consolidation in price. Support marked...

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Fundamental Backdrop With the volatility in place from last week's FOMC and NFP prints, the market has yet to stabilise and we could see volatility carried over from last week to the market. Technical Confluences 1. On the daily timeframe on XAUUSD, price has tapped onto the key resistance level at 2050 before rejecting. 2. An area of support at 1959 is...

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Fundamental Backdrop We had the FOMC and NFP news release last week. The FOMC increased its rate hike by 25 basis points as expected to 5.25%. The DXY dropped to a low of 101 after FED Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank's efforts to tame inflation is seeing some progress, also giving indication that it is nearing the end of its hiking cycle...

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Fundamental Backdrop 1. Last week the AUD increased its Cash Rate from 3.60% to 3.85%. 2. It signals to the market that the economy is performing well and that inflation is likely to rise. 3. This can increase demand for Australian assets, such as bonds and equities, which in turn can lead to an increase in demand for the Australian dollar. Technical...

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Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employment Change q/q which is a leading indicator of consumer spending increased from 0.5% to 0.8%. This shows that overall economic activity has increased. 2. Unemployment Rate maintained at 3.4% instead of the forecast of 3.5%. This shows that the overall economic health is stabilizing. Technical Confluences 1. Next resistance at...