OlympusLab

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Unemployment Claims comes out at 245k compared to a 240k forecasted. 2. This highlights a worsening labour market and a potential sign that of recession in the US. 3. This is bearish on the USD and we could see potential bearish continuations in the market. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term resistance at 102.09. 2. Price rejected...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Stronger dollar and bullish sentiments in USD is being brought forward from last week. 2. However, given the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies, EURUSD is anticipated to continue bullish. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term support at 1.08848 2. Price is still forming HH and HL, on a bullish trend 3. We could see the...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The CPI y/y was better than forecasted 10.1% VS 9.8% 2. A lower inflation rate, both on an annual and monthly basis, is generally perceived as positive for the currency because it indicates a stable economy with controlled prices, making it attractive for foreign investment. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term resistance at 1.25000 2....

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. UK employment rate increased by 0.2% which indicates a growing workforce and potential for increased economic output. 2. Payrolled employees increased by 31,000 in March 2023, indicating that businesses are hiring and expanding their operations. 3. Unemployment only increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in December 2022 to February...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Market sentiments continue to favour the EUR against the USD given the potential interest rate differential between the 2 currencies. 2. ECB highly anticipated to hike rates by 50 bps in the upcoming ECB meeting. Technical Confluences 1. H4 support at 1.08764. 2. Price have rejected the 0.618 level on the Fibonacci retracement and has...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Red news today like the Empire State Manufacturing Index could potentially result in a pullback for EURUSD before heading bullish again. 2. Market sentiments continue to favour the EUR against the USD given the potential interest rate differential between the 2 currencies. 3. Furthermore, USD economic data has been relatively soft and...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The Empire State Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health, is expecting to improve significantly from -24.6 to -17.7, we could see the DXY rise back up toward the 102 resistance level. 2. With the Unemployment Claims expecting to have almost no change, which could see the overall economic health stabalizing. 3....

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Last week, the Employment Change was better than expected which shows that consumer spending have improved. 2. The Unemployment Rate maintained at 3.5% which shows the economic health is stabilizing. 3. These news events caused the AUD to rise towards 0.68 key resistance level before dropping back down to 0.67 by the end of the week due...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. GDP m/m printed 0.0% compared to forecasted at 0.1%, which is worst than previous of 0.4% 2. It shows that the economy's health is decreasing 3. Based on previous data on Feb 10th 2023 where the GDP also dropped, we saw an estimated 100 pips drop within the day. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term support at 1.24550 Idea We are...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. CPI m/m printed 0.1% compared to forecasted at 0.2% 2. Fed hikes effects really slowing inflation down 3. USD fell shorting after, signifying the slowing down of inflation at a faster pace than what the market has been pricing in. Technical Confluences 1. Price rejected off resistance at 102.8. 2. Price looks good to form a new higher...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Tonight's Overnight Rate is expected to maintain at 4.5%. Based on previous March 8th's data, we saw a drop of nearly 200 pips towards the end of the week. 2. Expect significant volatility due to added on upcoming news events later such as the BOC Rate Statement, BOC Monetary Policy Report, BOE Gov Bailey Speaks and the BOC Press...

OlympusLab

Technical Confluences 1. Silver is currently near last year's high 2. Near-term resistance at 25.31550 3. Near-term Support at 24.29100 4. High-up resistance at 28.13740 Idea We are looking for price to continue heading towards the near-term resistance at 25.31550. There might be some struggle to break through the resistance so we are expecting a possible...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. CPI tomorrow will give greater clarity to the direction of the USD. 2. Last week's NFP result was positive and bullish for the USD, with unemployment rate falling to 3.5% yet again. 3. CPI m/m forecasted at 0.2% compared to previous 0.4%, market has been pricing in a further slow down in CPI. 4. CPI reading would provide insights to the...

OlympusLab

Technical Confluences 1. GOLD is reached the 2k regions. 2. Important psychological level/ all time highs at 2067. 3. Bullish trend on GOLD with HH and HL forming. 4. Price has rejected the H4 support at 1989 and is currently showing bullish PA. Idea We are looking for price continue heading bullish to tap into the nearest swing high at 2032. NOT...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The Employment Change which is a leading indicator of consumer spending, increased from 21.8k to 34.7k 2. Unemployment Rate maintained at 5.0% instead of increasing to the forecasted of 5.1% 3. This week's Overnight Rate is expected to maintain at 4.5%. Based on previous March 8th's data, we saw a drop of nearly 200 pips towards the end of...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. The RBA chose to hit a pause on its interest rates maintaining it at 3.60%. This marked the first pause since May of 2022. This is seen as Dovish. 2. It's increasingly dovish for the AUD, especially around the household sector. There are evidence that the combination of higher rates, high inflation, and falling house prices are leading to...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of USD news happening along the week. 2. All eyes will be on NFP. 3. At Olympus, we are forecasting payrolls to print <250k compared to 311k previous. 4. There has been multiple economic data release on the USD, highlighting the slow down of its economy and inflation. 5. ISM manufacturing PMI releasing later on in the day and...

OlympusLab

Fundamental Backdrop 1. CHF CPI m/m increased by 0.2%, much lower than the forecast 0.4% and previous 0.7% m/m. 2. The softer print of CPI shows that inflation has been slowing down at a much faster rate which could signify a dovish landing on the SNB. 3. Market Open on Dollar has been very bullish, however, with NFP lurking this week, expect plenty of volatility...