OvidiuPublius

OvidiuPublius

guessing there will be volatility an I am betting on something like this

OvidiuPublius

shorting here looks good, invalidation is close. if the top is in SOL si a good candidate for shorts

OvidiuPublius

Scrapping any short idea for the moment. Looking to long a range low sweep first.

OvidiuPublius

One more push up while DXY spikes lower and I am ready for a short swing trade on EUR

OvidiuPublius

2 setups that I am looking for are: 1 - we run the highs one more time and break MS on LTF going to enter market short 2 - if we don't get 1 than setting limit longs on the obvious demand bellow

OvidiuPublius

Take the highs early in the week and then break here, enter high conviction short

OvidiuPublius

ETH on the macro timescale I don't think it bottomed but it could take months before new lows. Now we are clearly on a up move with the W1 having clear liquidity draws higher up, targeting all those highs and I think ultimately 2230 as the 50% retracement of the higher TF down leg. On a more short time frame looking for pullback that I want to play on the H4 in...

OvidiuPublius

DXY is approaching a monthly low, and these tend to give a reaction. Not the best scenario for risk assets. If BTC fails to push higher and continues to distribute while DXY reacts to the 101 level, thinking of cutting most of the spot exposure.

OvidiuPublius

Managed not to buy stop ETH for the long term. I believe that we will see ETH below 1000 this year and that those lows will be eventually cleaned, but for now, seems more probable to target 1700 even 2200 first.

OvidiuPublius

I like how the structures are similar, not enough to determine the same outcome, but if we get some real FUD from Binance or DCG, expecting 14k to be first landing area

OvidiuPublius Updated 

Thinking that this rally might have a bit more to go, but expecting it to top out soon and then retest 3600 area into the end of the q4 2022 start of q1 2023. Going to update as we go along

OvidiuPublius

CME gaps were all the rage during the 2018 2019 bear market, now not so much. Going through the chart it is clear to see that the fill rate is indeed impressive, either because markets are efficient or simply because random doesn't really matter as long as people tend to subscribe to the narative. Most notable gaps currently are at 11k & 9k on the downside and...

OvidiuPublius

Only 40% more from here to where this bull run started, a bit below 10k. The chart means nothing only shows important HTF levels and distance price needs to travel to get at 2 levels above & 2 levels below.

OvidiuPublius

Thinking from a longer term perspective of where I would want to to maximize my BTC allocation, and at this point I think that 12k to 9k area is that place. Depending on which situation we find ourselves in: A. A. Red path - A similar event to the 2020 covid crash where a exogenous event caused a crash and then a FED intervention that led to a V reversal across...

OvidiuPublius Updated 

Worst case we reject from range down now Probable case we reject mid range high volume area 19k approx and we short range break down Best case we this was it and no new lows this year (hard to believe at this point)

OvidiuPublius

Seems like we are at panic stage currently with Anger and Depression coming next

OvidiuPublius

SPX what I am looking at for the short term. Bunch of limits set, let's see what happens

OvidiuPublius

We have been consolidating for some time and the direction is still unclear. From a macro point of view I was looking for a bullish October into FOMC, didn't get that and now time is running out. Looking at the chart there are multiple scenarios that could play out. Mapped the most obvious ones with targets. Trigger PA would be LTF break and hold or reclaim. More...