Everythings driven on macro currently so TA isn't really relevant in a time like this but these are just my thoughts and the current ranges I'm watching.
Similar setup to the Christmas fakeout... Looking for a relief pump around here but a strong reclaim of $46/47k range should signal further continuation. If not, likely back to low 40's or another possible leg down.
Multiple levels of accumulation (circled) leading to a potential final short trap? I could see a reversal here if we flipped 66k but if not 61/62k is solid support with OB's looking stacked in that area. Not worried about fed raising rates without concrete news and not just speculation, big picture the shows goes on and trend goes higher until the fed makes a...
Market structure looks pretty terrible. The failed breakout is not the greatest sign but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt given that US equities are currently correcting. H&S formed on the 4hr and we just rejected the second shoulder (as expected). I see the next support in the $42k range. If we catch sooner than that, I'll gage the strength of the order...
Not 100% sure whether we break down or up here but I feel it's the latter option. Whole lotta leveraged liquidity stuffed in this area so if we breakdown it could get ugly quickly. If I'm right though it should look something like the path I drew and then a slow grind up through local highs and then eventually ATH.
Logarithmic channels are one tool that bitcoin has always respected with this latest rally bouncing off one of the channels. This is not an estimate just a visualization of what something like this would look like.
The downward trend line will act as resistance until the market is ready to capture 42k. Golden cross looks likely adding to the momentum behind this run. These are also the ranges to be watching as resistance following a breakout.
A reclaim of $37700-38000 would almost certainly mean a retest of the range highs of $40500... A failed retest of 40k would most likely mean a retrace to somewhere in the 33k range.
Looks good for continuation on MACD and RSI, they need a little cool off but I think the upward trend line should be a good spot for the next leg up. Let's see...
Good short position soon, watch volume and keep SL tight... MACD and RSI both look bad on the 4hr but good on the daily, which makes a breakout possible. If so, second short position around $34600.
MACD and RSI look pretty terrible on all time frames bar the weekly... That being said a breakout or short squeeze is always possible here. If it does, $34500, $36400, $41000 are all points where I'll be watching the PA closely. Best way to understand the health of the market is by watching how Bitcoin reacts in these critical moments..
This chart is a logarithmic view of Bitcoin with price history dating back to 2011. I think this scenario could play out but I'm now watching the channels to determine my next buy spot.
