The notion of mean reversion in equity indexes has lost popularity, but I remain skeptical that this bull market can be sustained through the next Gann Square (3100+). Fortune favors the bold, except when the probabilities favor a crash. Government involvement in the so-called free market may provide another round of emergency liquidity which boosts asset prices...
An experiment in Fibonacci level retracement and trendline projection from the 2016 (initial) low print on SPX. For educational purposes only (let's see which direction the index trends next, shall we?).
This chart projects possible SPX price ranges into 2019 and 2020. I encourage you to draw your own conclusions, but would suggest that, at the close of 2018, the risk/reward profile of the index looks increasingly unattractive.
-PG
