I see very few reasons for the EURTRY to break to the upside from here; (unless provided the EUR can get so strong as to break-out the EURUSD pair to the upside for example)...
If so, then for how long...? Eventually all highs will have to break-down somehow (IMO)... I would like to short at the highs & hold those positions (because I believe those highs often don't ever get visited again; maybe perhaps only in another era; much further away)...
While this pair has already produced a very significant drop from the 2.000 price level ever-since (where it was predicted to fall); we should still not rule out the possibility that there is still some more room left to fall (perhaps)... Keep a watch out on the price of crude oil; there is a possibility of oil going even higher (that would further strengthen the...
Perhaps it could be a slippery fall down... (Similar to the USDSEK pair situation right now...) Again, all hope lies on the US Dollar for one... (Or perhaps emerging/commodity currencies need to continue to weaken even further...) Does USDZAR also ever have hopes of revisiting a new high...? (That one unlock clues to the future of other/exotic pairs for me...)
So is the US Dollar ever going to regain it's strength once more...? If not, then it could be a very-scary drop down into the hole (for this pair & also perhaps for other similar pairs)... I'll be looking at some other exotic pairs to see the story for the USD's future (which could unfold pretty soon)... Emerging/commodity currencies may be starting to strengthen...
One day we shall look back & see the happy days of Gold costing only a mere $1200 per-ounce to get...
Just my sentiments/thoughts more recently...
Just my personal thoughts/sentiments more recently...
Just my thoughts more lately...
The USDZAR, EURZAR, & CHFZAR pairs all made it to a great new highs at the beginning of this year...; but eventually, they all soon started plunging very heavily-downwards ever since then; especially the USDZAR pair... (Most probably it was the ZAR currency that was starting to get progressively stronger & stronger most likely due to a stronger price of...
It looks like it is around the "floor" (or the absolute lows)... (In my opinion...) GBPUSD has been pushed & squeezed down to it's lowest possible price point it seems (e.g. look at the daily chart)... Perhaps this pair will want to start climbing gradually higher & higher-up from now on....(?) Maybe there are just some very limited downsides left from this...
This year could be the year for the EUR to shine (just take a good look at the EURUSD pair very similar scenario right now too - looks like it want to break out to the upside similarly too)... Yeah, the GBP might strengthen here & there (temporarily) & all (causing some pullbacks on this pair here & there); but ultimately that may not stop this pair from breaking...
Since it didn't have anymore strength to break-out to the upside, then it is going to test some downsides... Perhaps it is aiming to break-out to the downside (who knows)...
If the BOJ does not do anything to weaken the YEN; or does not do anything drastic enough to weaken the YEN permanently (& to make sure that the YEN doesn't ever get stronger again after that!)... If the JPY is set to progress stronger (as a safe-haven currency perhaps), then this ZARJPY pair will have a very high chance of breaking out to even further...
Highly similar to the CADJPY & CADCHF situation; this pair is also going to break out to more downsides... (I'm also expecting Crude Oil's temporary rally to end quite soon, & then resume to some lower lows...) Additionally, the Japanese Yen (or JPY) is also known to be a very strong safe-haven currency; & it is most likely set to get progressively stronger for...
This is very similar to the CADJPY pair; I have the expectation for this pair to break to further downside too... (Mainly due to the fact that the price of Crude Oil is most probably set to start declining again in the near future...) In addition, the CHF is also known to be a safe-haven currency (like the JPY); which is highly likely to appreciate more in value...
As I was mentioning in USDCAD, USDRUB, USDMXN & for other similar oil-influenced pairs; it is highly likely that the current rally in Crude Oil is only temporary (& it will be set to end anytime soon; then the decline will resume to lower lows once again)... In addition, it is also expected that the Japanese Yen is strong, & it will most probably continue to...
I'm expecting the downside for this pair (as well as for EURMXN & CHFMXN) to be limited now (as Crude Oil is most probably just on a temporary up-rally right now; before it will start to fall lower once again)... The USD might also be set to strengthen more in the upcoming future too... Also refer to USDRUB, EURRUB & USDCAD, EURCAD (pairs which I trade too) for...