QuercusTrading

QuercusTrading

If the January Effect (coined by Peter Brandt) holds well, it means that the January high could be the yearly high. Price is currently very near the January high and has signs of rejection. Watch this level closely as we could be in for a major move down.

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GBPJPY Price failed to break down from the H&S pattern. The invalidation confirms a reversal is likely in play. Three Tap formed. Going higher from here.

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It's a long setup but not sure if bottom is in. If price don't get rejected at 1.3282, then is could be heading for 1.3457. Anyway, be cautious and do not get too excited trying to catch bottoms.

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One of the rare times where EURUSD probably made high of the week on a Monday. Shorting here. On a high volatile market day, patterns happen on lower timeframe instead of HTF.

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Possible reversal point. No confirmation yet. Look for sell opportunities if price fails.

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Short term market structure broken on Silver. Correction likely completed. Target at $28.6 / $26. Invalid above $31.75.

QuercusTrading Updated 

DXY The correction in dollar looks complete (a double-three). What follows a correction is an impulse. Unless price does another X-ABC down, otherwise 106.5 and beyond is the next target. USD denominated assets should be down soon.

QuercusTrading Updated 

AUDNZD has likely completed an ABC. Looking for price to make a full retrace to at least Wave B (1.0850), with extended targets at 1.0826 and 1.0782.

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Potential H&S formation at a reversal area. This is for a Wave (C) down to at least 0.9478 and beyond. Note that the structure is not confirmed until it breaks the trigger point. Shorting at current level offers a good RR but higher risk of failure.

QuercusTrading Updated 

Unless BTC has enough steam to surpass the RSI of 2021, if not this bull run from 15k is still suspect. Possible multi-year complex correction ahead. This is just based on wave analysis TA. I do not consider other BTC data like halving, network effects, cycles, etc in this analysis because I believe that price goes where it wants to go and those are just data to...

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Power of Three setup. Price just broke out of the tight range. If it manages to climb from here back into the green area, the pattern is more or less confirmed and target will be the top, ~ 1.9500.

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Price completed a broadening top and broke to the downside. The bottom for this wave is likely in. This pattern has a high bust rate (failure), meaning once price breaks back into the pattern, there is a high chance of it reaching the top again. For now, target is just the mid-level of the pattern.

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Price has been stuck in range for the past week and is likely to break lower soon. Aussie is bearish across multiple pairs, and I think taking any pair should do well. I would like to see a break of the range and some consolidation before impulsive move lower. If price snaps back into range, then close it, as a retest of the high is possible. Good luck!

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Price printed a running flat last week, which typically fails. The impulse 5-wave up has now retraced for an entry. At the minimum, we should hover for a while and see another 5-wave move up. This appears to be a corrective trade that is counter to the main direction, so be nimble to exit at any signs of a top. Invalid below 82.25.

QuercusTrading Updated 

#5 of Q4. After breaking upwards, price is now back at the lows doing a retest. A successful retest will confirm the 3-tap setup for a move to the recent highs. Also see next chart for deviation on the 4-hour.

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#6 of Q4 Price is forming a top here. The small expanding ending diagonal last week could be the top, but it is taking some time to breakdown. If price do break the red support zone confidently, movement down could be swift. For conservative trading, take a 50% short position now before confirmation in case you aren't available to catch it. But leave a...

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Trade #2 of Q2 Price has been trending up for 3 months. We won't know if this is the end, but several indicators line up. A break of the Bearish Harami candlestick, with a close below resistance. Successful Harami signals the end of trend. Price is currently at 70.5% retracement of the previous impulse move down. A probable completion of ABC. Deviation is...

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New quarter is here. A time to forget the losses of Q1! I am focusing more on cleaner setups instead of riskier and ambigious setups for this quarter. First up is the GBPAUD Daily. Correction has been going on for 2 months, so is it time to get moving? We got a nice H&S, break of the neckline, and currently price is testing the backside. A successful move...