The ideal selling signal would be to have a couple of positive (green) MACD bars
On the 1H timeframe, XAU is forming an identical triangle as what we have seen during Aug 12 - Sept 21 on the 4H timeframe. The Aug-Sept triangle turned out to be a bearish one when price broke downward to continue the drop. Let's see if it repeats this time.
On the weekly chart, the retreat of this wave (from late May 1280 area Low to late Sept 1556 High) has not yet completed. I am looking for a candle bar that breaks through the 0.168 level (1440), with intra-week low ending somewhere in the range of 1410-1440, and close above 1440 - this would mark the completion of the current retreat. Then I would want to see...
I thought Gold has been trading within this 1481-1519 band since October. But now I tend to believe it has been trading in this downward channel in my chart since early Sept high. Idea is to enter Short in a mild rebounce, at say 1472-1475 level, in the next 12 hours. If Gold goes below 1466 level in the next 24 hours, I would see confirmation of my downward...
Forming the right shoulder, looking for a near term rebounded from 1499 to 1519, and then continue the downward move to below 1470.
How Gold is to break this wedge will decide on the next trend
A false break out above $1304 line, expect to advance to the area of $1320-1325, and then continue the downward trend to below $1280 in the next 3 to 5 weeks. — R.G.
In the middle of the last (and longest) retreat wave of a textbook Elliott Wave, going below $1250 by mid-July, perhaps after 1-2 major upward correction. - R.G.
Finally in the last (and longest) retreat wave, expect to break $1250 before mid-July, perhaps after one major upward correction - R.G.