RealMacro

RealMacro Updated 

I keep seeing posts all over social media claiming that interest payments on the Public Debt are "unsustainable". No. Interest payments must be viewed relative to Tax receipts to get the full story. Currently, the US Gov't interest payments on the debt are 27% of Tax revenues. In the mid 80's interest payments were 49% of all tax revenues. Way higher than...

RealMacro Updated 

China markets struggling to stay out of bear market territory. They were the first to correct that led to many markets hitting resistance and chop. China has now formed a solid bear Flag. A drop here could have broader global market implications. Always important to listen to the message of the markets and let them tell you what is going on instead of guessing....

RealMacro Updated 

NOT! In the Labor Force remains at very high levels. 99.5 million people. To hit prependemic levels 5 million would have to start looking for a job. If that were to happen then the unemployment rate would skyrocket. Since the unemployment rate only counts those who are looking for jobs. The question is if and when we hit a recession how high will we go? Always...

RealMacro Updated 

BA has had tremendous problems going from first to worst. I have been amazed at how well the stock has held up. Could that be changing now? if the market goes so will BA.

RealMacro Updated 

Some trades I cannot publish here on Tradingview (such as Save) bc they require constant updates based on my methodology that require prior education and understanding. However, we can talk and learn from this recent wild move. Anytime you find yourself wanting to buy in a rebound move, often the move is rapid and gives you zero chance of getting in. As such...

RealMacro Updated 

Crypto bulls are in trouble! This is not the structure they want to see. The Chart suggests at least $600 billion of market cap can be wiped out from here on. You never want to see Euphoria far from all-time highs. This always leads to disastrous outcomes for perma bulls. It is always better to take profits wishing you were in than to lose money wishing you were...

RealMacro Updated 

As markets are shifting from high flyers to value we need to take a look at some nice charts with room to run. ANF like UA are looking good. Of course a correction is required before pushing higher.

RealMacro Updated 

Baak on March *th I posted this chart warning of a break of trendline wave 3 Since then it has drifted lower while building a sweet bear flag, Simple risk-reward setup. Short on a break stop of it pops back into the bear flag, No break no trade. Remember this is my diary you all get to peek in on. :) that means my analysis is on going to track my progress....

RealMacro Updated 

Huge bear flag forming in Coin. All that is needed now is a hook to form in the most recent move-up to validate the structure. Better to be out of the market with locked-in gains wishing you were in, rather than in the market wishing you were out losing profits.

RealMacro Updated 

I have been pounding the table in TNP for years now as a long-term investment. int the 52 weeks it has risen almost 100%. Now it's on the verge of breaking out of a major 14-year structure that could produce massive profits. At the peak of the Markets TNP was the last value play left. since then it has performed unbelievably well during market turmoil.

RealMacro

Agriculture soared 75% from the bottom in 2020. At the time no one was praising the low food prices. (Funny how that is.) Prices have not been particularly relative to historical levels. However, the rate of change (Speed) of the rise in agricultural commodities was rapid. This caused people to take notice and freak out as a result. Understandable in an overall...

RealMacro

Revolving credit skyrocketing is not a good thing as the interest is high. Short-term money creation is fun initially but repayment longer term is miserable and deflationary as money earned in the future does not go to consumption but rather interest. Despite all that revolving credit expansions we have not made new highs in the S&P. It is worth keeping an eye on...

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RealMacro

As I try to explain in the video, learn how to extract information from the data do not try to apply your vague hunches and feelings TO the data. Both in charting and in macro economic analysis. The proof is in the pudding. Don't forget to follow and get more great objective content.

RealMacro Updated 

A simple risk-reward short setup in DDS. Despite very strong retail sales data, the trajectory is unsustainable. With higher rates on the way, the market is spanking retailers as more money will go to service credit card debt rather than consumption. I have had DDS on my short radar for a while now beside the euphoric one more push higher nothing has changed for...

RealMacro

CAT does great when the global economy is booming. Not so much when it's not. As such breaking this key area of this structure suggests we are near a recession. As I posted before with FEDEX and many more that are not published here, there are many suggestions we are heading for a recession by market participants. CAUTION!

RealMacro Updated 

COIN has had several monster moves that appear to be coming to an end as pressure starts to build at the bottom of a fully formed valid structure on the verge of breaking a key area. We could go all into the fundy but it is not necessary at this point. The chart says it all. COIN Bulls CAUTION is in order.

RealMacro Updated 

This chart has a history of breaking upper trendlines before pushing lower. It keeps making a series of lower highs. This time is no different. 1 in 10 homes is now worth at least $1 million Newly listed homes -24.8% YOY Number of homes for sale -18% YOY If it were not for such a low supply of homes this chart would have collapsed a long time ago. However,...

RealMacro Updated 

FDX is certainly not the holy grail of analysis when it comes to the global economy. However, we cannot ignore what the market is saying about it either. We already know for a while now that OPEC cut oil production due to a lack of demand globally. We also know that oil prices spiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The US countered that spike in prices...