SMP99

SMP99

9-29: A look at the four previous pullbacks over the past year shows that they all look quite the same and follow similar paths. Eventually that will end. Knowing when/if the current pull back deviates from the previous trends may give a clue as to whether some thing different is coming. - All four completed pullbacks bottomed at or near the 50% retrace of the...

SMP99

Rally into the close? Seems possible...would work off a lot of the S/T oversold levels. If so levels to watch are 197.30, 197.50, and then 198.00.

SMP99

9-26: With oversold conditions heading into the day, SPY could see some chop for the day between 196.40-197.29. A break of yesterdays lows would get us 195.76, above we have 197.50. Rising SPY trend-line appears to come into play in the 194.50-195 area. Hitting this area might happen next week and could be a great short term buying opportunity. I'll be...

SMP99

9-26: With oversold conditions heading into the day, SPX500 could see some chop for the day between 1966 and 1976. A break of yesterdays lows could get us 1961. Rising SPX500 trend-line appears to come into play in the 1940-1944. Hitting this area could happen tue-thu next week and could be a great short term buying opportunity. An RSI divergence into this...

SMP99

9-25 Update: Last potential target for the day OR Fri morning will be 195.75. Around there we should see support from the past month and just below at 195-195.50 we have multi year support that should kick in. Dropping through these levels today/tomorrow on S/T oversold conditions seems unlikely. I plan to close my short bets taken at yesterdays close at these...

SMP99

9-25-14: A touch of the trend line seems well within reason given today's move. 195.75 area should provide support and also matches up nicely with the bottom channel. A move here very soon seems likely. IF we see any strength this afternoon might be a good opportunity to position for the move to 195.75. Once there, a bounce of some kind should occur.

SMP99

9-25: The afternoon liftoff took the 15 min RSI back to +70 as expected, right into resistance at 199.50-199.60. I think a test 198.50-198.70 is likely and should resolve some of the overbought condition. Action there may determine if 50 MA (197.82) will be tested again today/tomorrow. If support holds at 198.50 then a retest of 200.31 becomes likely. ...

SMP99

RSI on the 15 min has broke above 70 on five occasions since late August. Each time has marked a decent S/T top with the following drop averaging -.65%. If the 199.50 target is hit before the close we may get a sixth reading above 70. Likely a good entry for next move lower.

SMP99

Initial morning upside target of 198.60 has been achieved. Next target 199.10, then 199.50. Completion of latter should resolve the short term oversold conditions and may set up nicely for next down side target of 196.60 for early next week.

SMP99

A drop before the bounce?

SMP99

3rd attempt on 198.40 support may be coming . Break should get us to 197.45 quickly.

SMP99

Break of 198.40 support could give 197.45 by EOD. Otherwise, break in upper channel could give 199.45 by afternoon.

SMP99

A break in the price range above to the low side in conjunction with a RSI break below 50 would send SPY to at least 2 or more of the above marked targets (191, 181, 171, 161). BUT first, a test of and bounce off of 191-193 (lower channel support) seems mostly likely. The strength of that bounce should tell us whether new highs within the tightening range are...

SMP99

Third bear on the way?

SMP99

Hitting the middle point of the 33 yr channel on the SP500. Upper resistance sitting at 2775, bottom support at 1425. Break through back into the upper range or rejection back to bottom support?

SMP99

Bumping up against the support/resistance that has been important for the past 33 years.

SMP99

Back to the top of the channel it's been hitting since June.