SPYvsGME

SPYvsGME

Here is the new indicator on the 30 min timeframe. I wrote it to read daily SPX even in smaller timeframes so you can get more frequent updates on gamma and delta. Combine with Ichimoku Cloud and some TA and you got some predictable outcomes to build hedging, swing trades or even scalping short squeeze bottoms. Ascending Triangle is a perfect example of...

SPYvsGME

It's fairly simple to chart how the next 2 months are going to play out. Dems flooded the market with strategic reserves just in time to save Midterm Elections. Given OPEC+ decision to reduce supply, a monkey could have seen a bounce in OIL and commodities. Conveniently a low was put in to end September which means this months CPI print will be lower. It won't...

SPYvsGME

EU is in Turmoil. British are rolling over. China just shrugging it out. Elon caught with his hand in the cookie jar. CPI next week. Election Next Month But it's all about the Oil. Expect positive correlation to last about as long as the next CPI print. Oil blasts higher -> CPI prints higher -> Indexes enter Second Leg Down.

SPYvsGME Updated 

And all you get is this chart and no punchline. Not any ordinary chart because this chart has everything you will ever need to actively manage investments in any liquidity environment. 1. You need a 20D moving average with 2 Std Deviation Bollinger Bands. 2. Add 3 of my new Delta/Gamma Indicators locking in on 3 of the markets biggest index hedges. 3. Add a tad...

SPYvsGME

Putting the finishing touches on a delta / gamma indicator. Only outstanding issues is to complete is fixed strike implied volatility. Check FAQ I created here if you have questions about it. The indicator can be configured to reset on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd last business day of the month. The first new day after the reset the new strikes will be...

SPYvsGME

What is a Put Spread Collar? A put spread collar is an options strategy used to insure underlying assets from downside while limiting upside. Why would someone use a Put Spread Collar? What is unique about this strategy is the premium is paid for by selling an 5-6% OTM call and selling at 20% OTM put. Selling those 2 options pays for the long put premium. ...

SPYvsGME

Last week I charted DXYs negative correlation with the S&P 500. Since England announced QE to save pensions, the DXY went into positive correlation with the S&P 500. Markets are a tinder pile ready to burn any Market Cap down. Today was Apple. Tomorrow MU? Maybe. One thing is for sure. Volatility is gaining traction into the end of Sept. JHEQX resets...

SPYvsGME

Tomorrow is the big day Deltas conveniently sold back to 0 today when IV pushed the put above 15 delta mark. Here is what the delta curve looks like tomorrow at 9am. Not much upside possibility overnight. Downside still has significant risk of the long put strike being in the money. Should futures sell off overnight, I'm assuming any dips below 3580 will...

SPYvsGME

Looks like the long awaited bottom of apples channel has finally arrived. I knew the new iPhone and buybacks would only hold up for so long. Now the question is. Will this dip be bought or faded into October.

SPYvsGME

After a sell off in futures overnight we are back down to 3680 range on ES. That is 100 points from the JHEQX 3580 Long Put which deltas are displayed at the bottom. Yesterday we saw dealers buying up their short deltas. But there is 2 trading days before reset, will dealers not have to short deltas as price drops again? No. As time passes and price stays...

SPYvsGME Updated 

For all you weekend script warriors out there. I'm working on a new script to track the greeks for put spread collars like JHEQX My thought is to publish a script that can automate tracking of these massive collars and generate greeks, strikes and future volatility predictions. I want to create trading strategies based on selling while negative gamma and...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Asteroid JHEQX. This idea is an update on the JHEQX for any of you that track this market asteroid. The JHEQX is approaching Zero Gamma. At zero gamma the flows are fairly muted. The strike price is ~3795 for zero Gamma. BEAR CASE If the price declines below 3795, dealers will start selling with the market and create more volatility. BULL CASE The...

SPYvsGME

Yesterday just before FOMC notes came out I was watching an ascending triangle pattern in DXY form, test and hit profit target. I noticed that the S&P 500 was moving in perfect negative correlation to DXY during FOMC. So I decided to measure the correlation between the two and found significant negative correlation on the daily. The weekly chart shows...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Stock Markets get wrecked… In this analogy, JHEQX is the unstoppable force and Vix is the immovable object. This idea is in response to a question a reader asked me, what exactly are JHEQX Flows. Where do they come from? What do they Mean? I will describe it as one of my mentors does, Cem Karsan. Everyone is long the stock market. If you enjoy life, driving...

SPYvsGME

This idea is a study of the top 4 US Airlines compared to inflation rates. I still vividly remember the day I decided to learn about markets and economics. It was the Friday after markets closed on January 29th, 2021 and Kevin O’Leary (Mr. Wonderful) was on CNBC debating the so called reddit short squeeze of gamestop with MA Sec of State William Galvin. With...

SPYvsGME

In 2008 the U.S. central bank purchased  $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities $200 billion in agency debt $300 billion in long-term Treasury securities 2008 was named QE1 and would continue for the next 6 years before the FED paused and eventually began to tighten. During times of QE, banks, companies, markets all perform great. There is...

SPYvsGME Updated 

Most of you by now know I like to follow these big hedges in the market as a gauge for volatility. It's a driving factor behind things like Vix Highs and Lows being pinned at very specific ranges. CPI was really just a catalyst that pushed some larger Marco flows negative like the hedges I track. The closer these funds get to their long put strike, the more...

SPYvsGME

It feels like groundhog day whenever CPI prints roll around. Last time on our game of "Has Inflation Peaked?" the Fed was confident inflation was going to decline MOM. But we see things outside the FEDs box and realize that inflation is in fact sticky I'm still counting on 4005 to remain supportive. There is a gap back down to 3905. Should 3905...