Samuel_Morton_Trader

Samuel_Morton_Trader

The ECB raised rates this week. The Euro fell. The market has priced in this week's rate hike as the last. It thinks the ECB is done. Judging by current Euro Area inflation, there are more rate hikes to come. What does this mean? A stronger Euro, which is not currently priced in. Keep an eye on Euro Area inflation figures. If inflation continues to be...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze. Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates. Intervention - This will bring an...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

The RBA are likely to continue raising rates, more so than the BOC. The real fundamental bias is based on the economic data, though - Australia has released much more attractive economic figures than Canada. In fact, the AUD is a clear buy for me, if and when the price action agrees. We could see price reverse from the current support at 0.8815. If not, the next...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

The JPY is undervalued... Unlike other global economies, Japan is not facing an inflation crisis or below 50 PMI figures. The Yen has also been victim to some large bearish moves over the last few years, which are due a retrace move. In my opinion, it is starting to look like a good buy from both a fundamental and technical point of view. As a safe haven...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

It's the 24th May 2023, 3pm local time. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have just increased the official interest rate by 0.25% to 5.50%, as expected. What happened next was not expected... The RBNZ announced that they currently have no intention of raising rates further and that the next rate change could possibly be a cut! What does this mean for New...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Most US stock markets are at key diagonal resistance... It will be interesting to see where price goes from here...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

The Russell, and other stock indices, have been in a retrace move since November 2021. High inflation and fears of a predicted recession are the driving force of the current downside. Is now the time to re-enter equities? Is the retrace move coming to the end? Have the markets found a bottom? Here are my thoughts... Fundamental Analysis Inflation is coming...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Fundamentals drive the markets... Here is what we could see happen in 2023... 1. Inflation reversal - possible downside for the US Dollar. Rising inflation and inflation fears drove the USD higher in 2022. Now that inflation is coming down and is more under control, we could see USD downside throughout 2023. 2. Global recession trades - this is already priced...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

This is my high risk, long term carry trade for 2023 (opened in 2022, looking to add to my position further). The swap rate is very attractive - to provide some insight, I have received a 3% account increase since opening my first long position in 2022, through daily interest receivables. The Fundamentals... Turkey has potential. Exports are climbing. The...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Most USD pairs are ranging on intraday time-frames... It will be interesting to see where price goes from here... GBPUSD didn't even break it's range with today's negative CPI figure...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

A possible stall area of the recent upside. Maybe even some GBP selling...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

USD pairs testing key daily and weekly areas... Some of which are shared in my charts above... We could see some USD buying... If the areas break, then perhaps a longer-term USD retrace move I have been short USDJPY since 1.4930, so hoping for a break lower

Samuel_Morton_Trader

The Yen is weak... The weakest against the dollar I have ever experienced in my trading career... Economically though, Japan is not in the worst situation, especially when compared to key economic figures... Current global inflation rates; US 8.2%, UK 10.1%, EU 9.9%, AUS 6.1%, CAD 6.9%... Japan 3.0% GDP growth; US -0.6% (recession), UK 0.2%, EU 0.8%, CAD...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

It seems stupid to trade against the dollar right now, huh? Well, I think there is potentially a good early shorting opportunity against the Yen. This is why... The Fundamental View 1. The BOJ intervened in the Forex markets on Thursday 22nd September. This is just the start. I understand that the BOJ are doing this by themselves (without the support of the...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

The US Dollar has been bullish for months... Global economic uncertainty caused by inflation, COVID, and the Russian and Ukrainian conflict have caused cash to flow to USD assets. Could the USD be currently over-valued? My analysis suggests that USD price is due a retrace move, especially on very over-extended pairs such as USDCHF, USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD......

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Plan for success but have no expectations... A lot of trading emotion comes from expectation. Traders expect the next trade to be a winner, they expect this month to be profitable, they expect the USD to become bearish, etc, etc. Having no expectations can really help to reduce trading emotions. Obviously, you should still stick with a strategy and do all you can...

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Keep yourself busy between trades... Work, run a business, study or play video games. Being busy between trades will help to keep your mind occupied and your emotions focused on something else. As soon as emotion becomes involved in trading, everything will go pear-shaped.

Samuel_Morton_Trader

Focus on the long-term. Calculate returns and review your trading performance once per quarter or once per year. Checking returns daily or weekly just becomes frustrating and leads to emotional trading. Trading is about getting rich slowly. Analysing performance on a daily or weekly basis is irrational and can be soul destroying.