Skipper86

Skipper86

and it was retested this week. The Rollover LTE indicator (see script below) helps show why the 20 SMA (white smooth line) rolled up so sharply after steadily declining since June. The current price is above the sharply-dropping weekly closing price from 20 weeks ago (white jagged line), therefore, the 20 SMA has achieved a positive slope in short order. The...

Skipper86

There are similarities between the price action in 2011 and 2022 worth examining. The 2011 chart is on the left and the 2022 chart is on the right. The similarities listed in chronological order are as follows: 1. Major spiking crash (white) 2. Corrective trading range which would eventually serve as support (blue) 3. 100%+ rally off of crash low(gray) 4. Head...

Skipper86 Updated 

The same vulnerability that existed last week (see idea linked below) is only a reversal day away and we're still in the downtrend channel. Rather than being somewhat inside the channel like we were last week, we are now just inside the upper edge which makes for a great risk/reward short entry. Copper is similarly at a trendline (actually a confluence) and has...

Skipper86

R&D spending on the metaverse and other projects is eating into net income. Revenue is still impressive. People still use Facebook and Instagram. With a P/E of 8.649 nearing the bottom of a parallel channel drawn on the log scale chart, I can’t help but think there’s an options play or even a great long-term buying opportunity waiting to be had some time over...

Skipper86

Gold has fallen below the 50-month MA (thick blue), 200-month MA (red), and is below all of the major monthly, weekly, and daily moving averages. It’s in a well-established downtrend channel after a major double top breakdown with a retest. The green line pointed to by the green arrow was a potential major uptrend line which was broken and retested. The next...

Skipper86 Updated 

The Bollinger chart is on the left and the Wilder chart is on the right. The Bollinger chart shows bullish divergence between price and %B which is confirmed by AD%. See the yellow bars. AD% is a normalized accumulation/distribution indicator. Price has also created a double bottom and closed above the 20-day moving average, triggering a long entry. The...

Skipper86 Updated 

The RB1! Bollinger Bands bandwidth has narrowed to the narrowest width in 11 months as can be seen via the BandWidth indicator. Such a collapse in volatility usually precedes a volatility breakout in either direction. A Bollinger Band squeeze, which is a type of volatility breakout setup, is triggered when the bandwidth puts in a 6-month low which is a condition...

Skipper86

This idea is explained on the chart because that’s the easiest way to explain it. If you start at the green “Start Here” star in the top right corner and follow the green arrows, my observations about the current market conditions and how they compare to previous market crash conditions are detailed. Please feel free to ask questions.

Skipper86 Updated 

Using a standard MACD and an indicator which colorizes price based on MACD signals, it can be observed that the current price decline looks similar to previous corrections and crashes with the exception of the Covid crash which was a rare black swan event. Assuming another black swan isn't upon us, and basing predictions on past performance, (two yellow flags,...

Skipper86

Looking back 17 years, there is a range referred to here as the “rejection range” which is usually bounced off of and occasionally penetrated, but only after rejections. Price is currently in the same situation as it was in Aug 2011 (see “we are here” arrow on chart), having formed a top and entered into the rejection zone for the first time since leaving the...

Skipper86 Updated 

Very similar setup to the Nasdaq wedge that has already broken out and rallied. Price is near lower end of recent regression trend. Seasonally speaking, more upside is likely based on previous 2 years. With price from 50 bars back dropping quickly, the 50-day SMA will flatten out suddenly and has a lot roll up potential. P/E ratio of 13.34 is hilariously low. ...

Skipper86 Updated 

Gold has fallen below the 9wk SMA and other higher weekly SMAs. It’s in a trend channel for the year with lots of room between it and the bottom of the channel. It’s looking like it wants to retest the lows at 1677 where it will run into the 200wk SMA. In the bigger picture it looks like a possible double top with a trend line from 08 around 1400. One might...

Skipper86 Updated 

This analysis considers buy, sell, and contested zones and is the result of an attempt to figure out the direction of the market. Unfortunately, it offers no great hints as to where things are headed. The entire formation taken as a whole does look like a falling broadening wedge pattern which is a bullish pattern. I've published this chart for others to...

Skipper86 Updated 

There is a major confluence of trendlines and channel lines at 82.61 for tomorrow. The 20-month SMA and previous high levels are also there. I've added some extra lines to make it extra pretty.

Skipper86 Updated 

Rejection off trendline, failure to break $90 level, and a MACD signal cross failure on the 15-min. Sunday night entry. 3 micros shorted. $300 risk, $1200 reward. Confidence level: 70%

Skipper86 Updated 

BDE stands for Big Drop in Energy. We’ve fallen below the battleground level of 95, went all the way down to 87, and now we’re retesting 95 from below at a confluence of the 200-day ska (red), 20-day ska (white), and a trend channel going back to early June. Going short here entails weekend risk since this is the Friday session, hence the need for BDE. I shorted...

Skipper86

The upper chart is a seasonal chart with the 2020 and 2022 VIX levels overlaid on one another. It can be observed that there is a strong correlation and they are following the same approximate path starting in late April. This was found by looking at a seasonal overlay of the past years courtesy of the Seasonality (advanced) indicator created by TradingView user...

Skipper86 Updated 

An uptrend in diluted EPS (earnings per share) is overlaid on top of price and is indicated by the teal trend channel which price also follows. Price has dropped outside of this channel and can be considered out of place, needing to rise to get back in line with actual company performance. Auxiliary arguments: Price is at bottom of long-term price range. PE...