Skipper86

Skipper86 Updated 

There has been a 5.8 day (133 hour) cycle that began with the Russian invasion. Plotting the distance (“Dispersion” bottom left chart) between the 50hr sma (blue top left) and 200hr sma (red top left) reveals it. The turning of the peaks represents buy (green vertical lines) and sell (red vertical lines) signals. Whether or not the turning of the peaks signals...

Skipper86

DXY weekly has an ascending triangle and it had a positive correlation to stocks when it had a sharp bull rally in 2014. It's also approaching horizontal resistance. Should get interesting.

Skipper86

Last time the Fed started raising interest rates and people were freaking out saying the stock market was about to crash was 2015. Yours truly lost a decent chunk of change on SPY puts at that time, so I remember it clearly. As the chart shows, the market did not crash, it rallied. The main difference between now and then is there is inflation and a new set of...

Skipper86 Updated 

Chart A: (this text magically disappears from the chart when publishing so I put it here) Strength (higher high) shown in December crude => Likelihood that oil is headed higher note: June contract has not put in a higher high at this point, but December is taken to be more important since it's further into the future and future price is what we're trying to...

Skipper86 Updated 

Supports a bearish outlook. The speed fan shows uptrend failure after uptrend failure and retesting of the fan lines. It would appear that we are now retesting a fan line and the downside target is in the $50 range.

Skipper86 Updated 

EIA (Energy Information Agency) historical data going back to 1990 shows that the past year has seen stocks (storage) depleting more rapidly than any other year. I have reasons to believe demand is rising and if anyone is curious I will elaborate further but these ideas that I've been posting don't get much attention. I'll just say that diminishing supply and...

Skipper86 Updated 

Crude will probably retest and maybe exceed the 2021 high somewhat but a correction to cool things off seems necessary to bring us back to the green trendline which is sloped identically to previous ascents. The purple trendline which goes back to November 2020 is important and a retest of it seems likely. The red line which is a support/resistance line of...

Skipper86

The US consumes 18 million barrels of crude oil per day (source: Google ). This is a staggering volume which is difficult to visualize therefore I have calculated how many football fields long each side of a cube that could hold that much oil would need to be in order to help with visualization. The result is that the cube would need to measure 1.29 football...

Skipper86 Updated 

With the exception of an apparent fakeout in July there is a trendline going back to the previous July which is well respected. A triangle formation can be said to have started around April and looks poised to have a possible mid to late-November breakout. If a breakout happens between the green vertical lines I'll consider that an ascending triangle breakout...

Skipper86 Updated 

Looking at the weekly chart, it appears to be in an uptrend, but there appears to be a descending triangle top formation similar to the previous one. In order to fulfill the ascending triangle pattern, the price will need to drop by the end of January and if this thesis plays out, the bottom may be in around August of 2022. I'm not recommending going short right...

Skipper86

Looks like the setup before a major plunge. A plunge is not guaranteed, but the setup is worth noting.

Skipper86

(increased production) and a decrease in price in the price of crude oil in 2022.

Skipper86

Linear regression downward channel, engulfing candles shown, looks more bearish than it does bullish but a break out of this channel would be interesting.

Skipper86

There is a downward channel in the monthly RSI and RSI has bounced off the underside of the upper channel line. There is also RSI divergence in overbought territory, however, a failure swing (lower low after lower high) has yet to be established so being short right now is aggressive. There is also a rising wedge, as noted previously.

Skipper86

The major breakdowns in natural gas were preceded by breakdowns in the Widowmaker (March/April) spread. This is an analysis done in hindsight, for future reference.

Skipper86

The Covid cases chart on the bottom is from the Johns Hopkins website. Tradingview doesn't show Covid data past the 27th of November for some reason. The data from Johns Hopkins which includes today shows that we're clearly in the beginning of a new wave, unfortunately. The wave is starting from the highest low of all the waves by a significant margin and...

Skipper86

Before the Covid crash, there was a rising wedge with a fake drop and a retest. A similar pattern current exists. If this Omicron variant shakes up the markets, things may get ugly. I'm not going short unless intraday price action suggests doing so but I do have a bearish bias.

Skipper86

This is an after-the-fact observation, but the bearish divergence between price and net non-commercial longs is worth noting for future reference. COT = Commitments of Traders report