Murad made some great points, and hes a really good grifter. I think CT got way too caught up in the madness. Cant remember any shitcoin that did 80x return in 5 consecutive green candles. Not even Luna could get those returns. Just as quick capital flowed in, i think capital will flow out as well.
Pair this with macro btc bearishness, a recipe for memecoin...
Below, is "blue chip DeFi" from last cycle right before the rally started. October and november were bearish months for most altcoins including ETH. Upotober and Movember might be bullish for BTC, but that doesnt always mean Alts will follow
Despite escalating tensions in the middle east, TVC:USOIL keeps declining. The market seems more focused on global economic growth beyond other factors. Now that the US is the largest oil producer, Geo-political tensions have less of an effect on global energy prices.
Although you should never be bearish when SP:SPX breaks ATH, i think a short term minor sell off would be healthy given the bearish divergence forming on the daily. The 200D MA would be an ideal buying opportunity. However, its more likely we keep crawling to 6000
TVC:DXY might have a short term relief rally this week before continuing its march to lower lows. Factors contributing to weakness can be economic data and/or FED being more dovish than expected
In the top chart we have INDEX:MMTH which shows how many stocks are above their 200 D MA expressed as a percentage. When 70% or more of stocks are above their 200 D MA, it can be seen as over exuberance which can lead to a short term decline as investors take profits on riskier stocks to rotate in less risky stocks. While we are not quite there yet, the middle...
TVC:DXY retest of trend line on broad market pullbacks/weakness. Bearish continuation expected until EOY. Short term upside, longer term downside. 96 on TVC:DXY still on the table.
AMEX:SPY breadth is weakening on the 200, 50, and 20 D (see chart)
When the market is running low on breadth, there will be some rotation or correction. Selling expensive stocks for cheaper ones (most likely cyclical's) will cause some selling pressure on the bigger names like NVDA, AAPL etc. Expect sidways choppiness for the majority of the market.
Ichimoku...
CRYPTOCAP:BTC bulls be very cautious here!
Bear case:
1. AMEX:SPY breadth running out of steem
2. AMEX:SPY seasonal weakness in September
3. CRYPTOCAP:BTC is below 20 W EMA, 50/200 D MA bearish cross
4. CRYPTOCAP:BTC Weekly close below the ichimoku cloud.
Still possible for a 70k retest at trendline, but Bear case outweighs the bull base
CRYPTOCAP:ETH is looking more bearish than $BTC. Still struggling to break resistance. If AMEX:BTC makes another impulse downward after being rejected from 70k again, expect ETH to test 2k or even lower.
Exercise with caution on $BTC. We are still below the 20 W EMA, and below a daily trend line of 70k. However we are back above the daily cloud. From a technical standpoint, its quite mixed and Risk/Reward is not favorable here imo. Waiting for the breakout above 70k would be the ideal move since AMEX:BTC has been in consolidation for some months now.
Although, previously bearish on oil, i am open to the idea of a breakout from the ascending triangle. If geopolitical tensions escalate in the middle east, TVC:USOIL prices can serve as a proxy to this conflict. However, as per previous forecast, if geopolitical tensions do not escalate - i dont think they will personally - then 67$ oil is still on the table....
AMEX:SPY has been pricing in Fed cuts since the yen-dollar unwind in my opinion. I think we consolidate here for at least a few more days until moving either higher or lower (depending on Fridays PCE numbers). Trend is still bullish however, FED has signaled their move. Whether its 50 BPS or 25, the market is uncertain
TVC:DXY is still falling as per the forecast. However, bullish divergence is forming on the daily. This leaves more room for consolidation above 100 levels. On the weekly, TVC:DXY is still on the downtrend
