Within 2 weeks since the yen unwinding, we are just a couple percentage points off the highs. The vast volatility has me a bit suspicious. Since we are back above the cloud, confirms bullish continuation, however I suspect this week we might range around 5600 on AMEX:SPY due to heavy news flow this week.
TVC:DXY still grinding lower. Nothing much has changed since last week. Global PMI data and subsequent labor market data in UK, France, Germany, USA will have an impact on fed cut expectations and by proxy risk assets including the dollar.
The Annual Jackson Hole meeting is this week as well. Surely there will be some volatility. My best guess is Powell...
$CLORE AI is approaching an accumulation zone but no guarantees this doesnt go to 0. Hold spot if you really believe in the project - otherwise stay away. Disclaimer: I dont have any background knowledge of this company.
Is BTC out of the woodwork yet? Not quite
Last week I posted my macro view on BTC. Lots of data showed evidence of a strong Q4 for BTC. However, we are still only mid Q3. Its quite early and seasonally speaking, there is usually rotation from large caps into smaller caps in August before an abrupt sell off in September. With lots of uncertainty looming about FED...
TVC:USOIL still bearish and in a long corrective phase. Weakening labor market data paired with production cuts will continue to lower oil demand globally. Targets remain the same
SPY is still showing signs of a corrective phase - which is not a bad thing. We had a retest of 200 D MA last week. But a continuation of the correction can bring us to 4800. Labor market and CPI data will play a big factor on whether 200 D MA is broken or not.
Despite the volatility, the weekly time frame still shows bearish divergence. Hence why i think we will still continue on the leg down to 96.9 as forecasted many months ago. Nothing has changed here.
Since 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion.
For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)
However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks...
As the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation.
Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on...
After hitting the target of 5600, we peaked just days later. Whether this correciton is over or not depends on how it holds the 200D MA at 5048. Bullish divergence on the Daily suggest a trend reversal for more upside. The VIX experienced a 7 sigma event suggests its probably over as well.
USOIL being a weather bell for global economic growth, oil prices are showing similar fractals to DXY. Nothing much changed since last weekly outlook. No divergences suggest no reversal of trends yet. Target still remains at 61$ a barrel
#BTC on the weekly doesnt look great. We closed lower than the 20 W EMA on the weekly which has consistently signaled the end of bear markets post halving (may 2021 being an exception). However, this is a weak argument imo and I think this cycle more closely resembles last cycle where we had the exception in May 2021 because there is more evidence that this cycle...
Based on cyclical data, where btc is this cycle indicates 2025 to be a key year as the year after halving is usually the best year.
the average days from previous cycle tops to current cycle tops are 1268 days. A conservative estimate would be a top in Q2 2025, with the possibility of an extension into Q4 2025 if this cycle follows more closely to the last 2...
