SquishTrade

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: BTC's Right-Angled Triangle "Don't catch a falling knife" is an oft-quoted aphorism among traders and investors. At its core, it's a warning about the dangers of buying into a downtrend or sharp drop before price has shown evidence of a bottom. Of course, there are profitable trading moves around buying dips in uptrends , and this cautionary...

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: Logarithmic Trendlines on Weekly Charts Recently, an article discussed a long-term logarithmic trendline that BTC's price had reached. Supplementary Charts: BTC Reached a Long-Term Logarithmic Trendline This post provides an update on that trendline, and it adds a couple more log trendlines for consideration, all of which are on weekly...

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Primary Chart: Daily Chart on Log Scale with Down Trendlines, VWAPs, and Key Price and Fibonacci Levels Some may be feeling a bit giddy over the fact that NVDA has rallied 28% off the lows. But look at those other bear rallies since the all-time highs shown on the Primary Chart. How do we know this time will be different? Expecting it to be different before a...

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Primary Chart: Trendlines, VWAPs and Fibonacci Levels Summary: 1. NVDA's bear rally shows signs of exhaustion by breakout to the upside out of its parallel channel. 2. Seasonality remains bullish so that could cause more unexpected moves to the upside before lower. 3. In the intermediate to long term, NVDA likely heads lower. The bear could resume this week. Or...

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: Linear Regression Channel for DXY on Daily Chart, Upward Trendline from November 2021, and Parallel Channel from 2008 DXY Lows Since the low on January 6, 2021, DXY (the dollar weighted against a basket of several other major currencies) has ripped about 28.66% higher, causing ripple effects in equity markets, commodities, and international trade....

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: 2D Chart of ETH Showing Fibonacci Targets ETH and most cryptos are moving fast so this post will be brief. But ETH is headed to new lows. It has sliced through every single major retracement of the rally off the June 18, 2022 low. Squish has remained bearish on BTC and other cryptos despite very brief counter-trend forecasts on occasion to...

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: Two Downward Trendlines, Fibonacci Levels, Major Resistance Zone and Anchored VWAP from October 13 Low Early bears jumping in to short NVDA last week were punished when NVDA's apparent breakdown failed. NVDA broke decisively below key Fibonacci support as well as an upward TL off the YTD lows from mid-October 2022. But then this breakdown utterly...

SquishTrade Updated 

This post will provide a quick macro update concerning the yield curve inversion in US bond markets, which have often (though not always) been followed by a bear market in equities. Note the various yield curve inversions in the 10-2 Treasury yield. This compares the 10Y US Treasury yield with the 2Y US Treasury yield , and when the 2Y yield exceeds the 10Y...

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Primary Chart: S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart with Fibonacci Time Analysis and Fibonacci Price Analysis This analysis seeks to evaluate potential turning dates using Fibonacci time analysis. Please consider this as merely an exploration of ideas that in all likelihood could be wrong. It's a theory being used to consider a turning point in time where price may reverse...

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Zooming way out on AMD's chart shows that the vicious 1-year downtrend since the all-time high in November 2021 appears modest on a weekly logarithmic chart. The downtrend has retraced only .236 of AMD's uptrend since the major low on July 27, 2015. This seems like a reasonable spot for AMD to consolidate it's recent sharp decline over the past 10-11 months....

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: Daily Logarithmic Chart Showing Anchored VWAPs, 34-Day EMA, Trendline Previously, SquishTrade discussed why BTC's downtrend cannot reverse given that sellers remain in control as defined by the volume-weighted average price starting at the all-time high. That discussion is contained in the post linked below. Supplementary Chart A Some may...

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: Daily Logarithmic Chart with Anchored VWAPs, Fibonacci Levels, and Trendlines BTC bulls seem ecstatic today after BTC broke above an intermediate-term trendline (shown in red on the Primary Chart). While this breakout could retest (or whipsaw), the likely result is that it could be a short-term positive, leading to one of two price paths in the...

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Primary Chart: Linear Regression Channel, Fibonacci-Derived Price Target, and Two Long-Term Anchored VWAPs Many crypto enthusiasts have called for a bottom at the various lows in the BTC's downtrend over the past year. At each of the major lows, eager dip buyers swooped in and tried to pick a market bottom. The major swing lows in this bear market in BTC have...

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Primary Chart: Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCUSD with Fibonacci Price Target SUMMARY: BTC continues to consolidate and chop in a tight range around $19,246 since mid-September 2022. This range is from $18,232 to $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move to the upside or downside has failed, confounding directional bears and bulls alike. A longer-term trading...

SquishTrade Updated 

Primary Chart: BTC's Logarithmic Trendline from the All-Time High to the Present Date BTCUSD's current down trendline reflecting the primary trend can be drawn on either a logarithmic or linear chart. Both charts are used in technical analysis. Logarithmic charts tend to be better at conveying accurate proportions of price action on charts covering a lengthy...

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Primary Chart: NVDA's Primary Trend Since Its All-Time High November 22, 2021, with Anchored VWAPs SUMMARY: NVDA appears to have begun a countertrend rally within the context of a sharp downtrend. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading...

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Primary Chart: AAPL's Four-Month Triangle with Various Trendlines and VWAPs SUMMARY: AAPL's longer-term charts show a symmetrical triangle arising from the convergence of a down trendline from January 2022 (dark blue) and an up trendline from March 2020 lows (also dark blue). This triangle appears to be in the process of breaking on arithmetic charts. When...

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Primary Chart: AMD's YTD Parallel Channel and Short-Term 2.5 Month Parallel Channel This post will provide only a brief update to the more detailed technical discussions of AMD from last week. The more detailed technical analysis is contained in a pair of AMD posts linked on the Primary Chart above. 1. Nothing has changed with regard to AMD's larger downtrend...