Immediate downside target is 1.170 . Depending on how the equity market's here in the U.S. ascertain's the FOMC mins will dicate today's price action fro the Euro-dollar.
Easy structural price-action with USD/CAD this week as expected, after both rejected upper and lower resistance levels called from the start of the Asia open of this week. Bias remains long with the implication of a weakening WTI, which will deteriorate debate for Canadian sands etc.
Trump is rejecting Pelosi's $2.4 T dollars, risk-off explodes, S&P500 drops over 1.5%
+40 BP reaction from the yellow PRZ shown on the 5th.
As shown earlier, the zone of rejection was rejected by an impulse of over +45 pips to the upside. Bias remains long, however price action suggests further upside potential after the DTL is broken shown above.
DXY continues it's rejection & stall out just below the key-level of 93.50 for the index. With stacked confluences including: Daily KL + 4-hr ATL + 4-hr PRZ, aswell as 20 hours of previous "accumulation" at this level, leaves me to believe a strong break upwards (continuation) will break in today's N.Y. equity session.
Looking for a similar reaction in UF to the previously shown bullish continuation for DXY . Will be watching DXY and US500 close for execution on this trade (if at all). Although lacking a few confluence, this pair is showing the most favorable inverted correlations to a market I am watching closely to fall.
Watching EU to continue it's retest + rejection of the 4-hrly descending-trend-line (DTL). This price is joined by the 61.8-73.3% favored retracement zones (PRZ) as-well as the institutional key-level of 1.18000.
DXY continues it's rejection & stall out just below the key-level of 93.50 for the index. With stacked confluences including: Daily KL + 4-hr ATL + 4-hr PRZ, aswell as 20 hours of previous "accumulation" at this level, leaves me to believe a strong break upwards (continuation) will break in today's N.Y. equity session.
$1.155/1€ Downside target after 4-hrly rejection of 1.800 & downside break of the current ascending -trend-line (ATL) for the 4-hr+ timeframe. Once today's DXY daily closes we can gauge a better estimate for execution.
Shiller vs Spx adjusted for inflation showing--for once this year-- similar correcting price action suggesting 2021 will be a year to witness, fundamentally speaking that is. With real-yield negative, and bonds at all time lows, there remains no interest for anything relative to the inflated SPX.
Update from the current convergence failing to formulate between the real yield rate and the price of gold for one ounce in $'s.
Multiple confluence point do both an appreciation of the U.S. dollar this week, on the back of multiple structural reversal patterns in both various equity markets but WTI, and vix being over 26 which suggest a bearish trend for the US500 / SPX. Wait for a rejection of the zone in yellow on the 4-hr time to short for a multi-day/week swing to the downside.
The U.S. dollar is currently at a critical point here on Monday post- N.Y. open. This is not only critical in terms of retest the UDTL of the previously broken broadening wedge shown last week. This retest of what is now a DPTL (descending-parallel trend-line) and can hold as daily support for the DXY.
Gold Ascending Triangle 14:27:27 (UTC) Mon Oct 5, 2020
Vix Pre-NY; Post-US500 ( Futures ) CL_1! 23:42:26 (UTC) Sun Oct 4, 2020