Yea its wildly overbought. so what? times are also a bit crazy
I think this year's high for gold vs USD is in, and now it is in distribution. The big push up was started by big buyers and then retail followed. The big buyers however don't look that they want to buy much more at current prices and retail alone is unable to, but provides nice liquidity to short sellers. However as the initial retrace caught too eager bears...
This is a noob trading plan, but I am net short on Cable. We got rejected from breaching 1.30 with lower high. Additionally, British economy and politics provide daily entertainment fundamentally. Therefore I'm confident that GBPUSD will retrace some more (even though we are on sequential 9 on 4h candles and BOE announcements are coming soon.
I think EURUSD will reverse between 1.120 - 1.133 and still be in the long term channel, whether using the green or red parallel lines. Despite the recent bullishness of EUR and bearishness of USD the global demand for USD will remain stronger. Also, Eurozone has more economic problems than USA and raising interest rates would make it even harder for EU to compete...