ToshihiroHiramatsu

ToshihiroHiramatsu

It's been a while since I've done a market update. CME has seen a significant increase in ETH short positions. Citadel and other CME hedge funds are likely seeking liquidity lower. Good luck to all traders for the next 2 weeks.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

ETHBTC still has a long way down to go. For ETH holders, it's been agonizing seeing BTC effectively ~5x since the bottom at 15k, while ETH has only done a ~2x. And even now, it seems like retail traders are trying to catch the bottom on ETH - this is reflected on the higher funding rates on ETH compared to BTC, and the LS ratio seen on Exocharts. This likely...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

According to the CBOE COT report, most non-reportables (aka retail traders) are expecting bullish results in the coming days/weeks. This is opposed to the positions of hedge funds, who are hedged neutral, likely expecting a bearish response to buy into dips later on. A likely fakeout of the triangle will lead to a price around 64.9k, which is a decent 5%...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

XRP is in an uptrend. 0.4957 is the key level - the quarterly POC. BTC will likely hit the major liquidity zone between 64.5k to 65.3k in the coming days.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

After a massive 7% rally on ETH, the price is about to correct. Using Fibonacci diagonals, it's likely that 2570-2580 is strong resistance. Trade with care.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

wxy-abc-wxy corrective waves are a lesser known waveform that should be familiar to the og Elliot wave traders from the 2000s. The current chart of BTC is following the same Elliot counts as the charts of SPX and NDX from 2009-2011. Often times, hedge fund trading algorithms 'map out' price patterns following these waveforms and if this is correct, the wxy...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Majority of retail traders are bullish for Q4, stating that the US Election will be bullish as Trump will be elected. Many are forgetting that leverage in the crypto market remains high according to Glassnode On-chain analytic data. Hedge funds and leveraged funds still remain majority short, whereas retail traders have added to long positions according to the...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The BTC contrarian trade is further down from here, targeting 51k - 52k. Retail traders remain long, as per the most recent CME COT report. Hedge fund positions have not budged. NFP on Friday may be a trigger for a final capitulation. Further chop in the next 24-48hrs is likely until the key news on Friday.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The media and crypto Twitter is trying to convince traders that September will be a bearish month for crypto. If all traders have a similar trading hypothesis, usually the opposite outcome will happen. This is because trading is a zero sum game. The majority will lose.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Kabal have been shorting NEIRO on Bybit since ~28th August. Allegedly 'large' liquidation is at 0.021 according to their Telegram who has Bybit 'VIP' squad watching potential targets. Not financial advice.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The $1.2 billion USDT in longs across multiple exchanges including Binance, Bybit and OKX has largely been cleared. This means that any dips are for long opportunities. Start with low leverage until a clear trend has been established.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The latest CME COT report shows that institutional and leveraged funds are shorting, whereas retail traders are more neutral. The last time this happened, BTC corrected down 12%. It is likely that BTC will reach 53-54k in the next few days, even from a technical perspective. Best to tread carefully until this level is reached. Then I expect institutional short...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Market makers are working hard to decrease the overall leverage in the market. Most likely price action will chop for mid-end Q3 before going up in mid Q4. This is how the market moves to de-leverage the market so that the overall profit made by retail traders is minimized. Stay safe.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Looking at the September 2024 options market, straddles are mispriced by ~15%. This means that price will continue in the direction of momentum (down) for a few more weeks. There is further liquidity below. Do NOT use leverage to buy SPX at current levels.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Yen buying and Nikkei selling has had spill-over effects onto other Asian and US equities. Will take many weeks to bottom out.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Hedge funds have been buying up Yen since early May 2024. This explains why the Nikkei has been falling. We have a bullish monthly order block that will act as support and a diagonal support which will most likely be breached on the balance of probabilities. Prepare for more volatility in the coming days/weeks.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

It's been a while since my algorithm has set up a bullish signal. Last time was at 39k back earlier this year. There is a high chance BTC can reach 90k by late August, then September will be a potentially bearish month.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

With tech stocks taking a beating and because stocks are likely bearish until September/October (look at the bets placed on CME by the big institutions), it is likely palladium will be the first metal to reach a significant low. Palladium is used in catalytic converters and because it is so tied to the tech industry, is one of the most volatile metals to trade....