ToshihiroHiramatsu

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Natural gas will probably end up filling CME gap or even running through it. Seen it several times before and because hedge funds have added more aggressive shorts in the last 2 weeks, this seems even more likely. #natgas #boil #ung #unl #kold #gas #oil

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The latest CBOE data shows that hedge funds and large speculators have increased their short positions. This usually means that there will be a large drop coming in the next few trading sessions. Retail traders and non-commercials are 84% long and 16% short. This means that there is plenty of liquidity to grab in the $1.80 to $2.10 region. I'm not saying $1.80...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Natural gas continues on a downward trajectory while majority of retail traders continue to add to their losing long positions. Hedge funds and large speculators have been net short since mid-May and according to the last CBOE report, have not backed off in their views. The lack of volume signifies that the final grab for liquidity has not occurred yet.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

There are many factors why natural gas is going down: *Hedge funds and large speculators are still net short *Retail traders and non-commercials are net long and still not wiped out yet (CBOE and FXCM proprietary data) *Seasonal variation (warmer than usual summer in northern hemisphere = less demand for natural gas) *Liquidity still available at 2.12 - 2.18...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Natural gas is going down. According to CBOE COT report, most big hedge funds and leveraged funds net short since April 2024. Expecting price to hit at least 2.23 before any meaningful bounce. If leveraged funds and hedge funds keep adding to short positions, it is even more reason to avoid long natural gas. As per CBOE COT report, retail traders...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Hedge funds and large speculators added 24k long positions over the past 2 weeks, and they are net long since 21st June. They are likely getting ready for a large move to upside.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The SNB has decided to cut the interest rate by 25bps from 1.5% to 1.25%. This immediately sent the Swiss Franc lower and thus, sent the USDCHF higher. However, this is likely a short term move. Hedge funds are still net short from higher levels since March 2024. It will take a long time and more policy meetings for the USDCHF to start a long term uptrend....

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce their policy rate tomorrow 20th June 2024. This should send the Swiss Franc (CHF) higher yet again. USDCHF will likely plunge in the medium term.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

While FXCM and IG retail sentiment remains bullish for USOIL, institutions have started to become bearish from May 20th, with majority of leveraged funds and hedge funds accumulating short positions on WTI, USOIL. This likely means further downside is likely for USOIL. Order book analysis suggests there are plenty of market depth on the DOM at approx. 70.8 levels.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

USDJPY remains one of the most volatile pairs. With the BOJ manipulating the books to destroy both long and short biased traders, I expect the quarterly NPOC to be hit at approximately 159 level. This will also cause a 'fake out' from the ascending channel, likely triggering short traders to be stopped out, and then from those levels, we may see BOJ to start...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

USOIL WTI - long accumulation from hedge funds and leveraged asset funds. Likely bullish sign for upwards momentum medium term.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Quantitative analysis is a powerful tool that looks at thousands of variables to determine likely outcomes. In terms of technicals, BTC failed to close above key resistance at 67.3k - 67.5k. Short term this is bearish. A high magnitude bounce off 57.6k is expected.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The Open Interest (OI) rose significantly yesterday on the news of HK ETF being approved. This is likely due to retail traders longing BTC with leverage. Spot selling led to a 5% drop in price but OI still remains elevated. This usually means price will go further down for a flush out. Next technical demand zone is 56k. Order books have high demand there also. We...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Deribit and OKX quarterly futures look bearish compared to perps. This is usually a sign that price will continue downwards for the short term. Possible targets remain 60300 pqNPOC and ~56000. Even if price bounces from here, the order books look bearish overall. Any rallies will likely be sold into. 'Sell in May and Go Away' looks to have come 1 month earlier...

ToshihiroHiramatsu

CME and Deribit Options chains looking like imminent move to 84k likely within the next 1-2 weeks. Corrective move C to 68k is likely finished. Send it higher.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

BTC is in a key supply zone and with order book depth being high in the 0-1% range, it will likely lead to a significant drop in the coming days in early April. New monthly candle will create at least a wick. So I expect a 7% drop minimum given the bearish order books on multiple exchanges including all the July-September expiries.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

Classic swing failure pattern on HTF. Lots of people trading with high leverage thinking AVAX will break through again above $45. I'd say this is highly unlikely. A break down below will clear out all the high leverage traders. Wait for $41 level.

ToshihiroHiramatsu

The options market is a very important aspect of how hedge funds and other large speculators place their bets on the underlying asset. The 25 delta skew on crude oil suggests high implied volatility and given the >1.2 call:put ratio of the 10-15% strike price +/- from current trading price, it means that volatility to the upside is likely. I expect a 5-6% gain...