TradersAICorp

TradersAICorp

PCE, Window Dressing, and Witching This morning's PCE data release was a yawn. While the window dressing is going to exert a push to the upside, the quarterly index options' positioning looks to be exerting a pull to the downside. Which side wins - especially in the last hour - could determine how we close today. After that, Monday will be a whole new...

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Window Dressing Buoying The Markets? As we wrote in our trading plans on Tue., 03/28: "However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday". Our models continue to monitor the price action...

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Choppiness to Persist Into Friday? As we wrote in our trading plans for yesterday, Tue., 03/28: "However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday". Our models continue to be in an...

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Rising Yields Back In Focus With the banking chaos now a bit settled, the markets seem to be focusing back on Interest rates (and, hence inflation). The rising yields today seem to be holding back the markets. However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window...

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When Bank Safes Don't Feel Safe Anymore... Not just U.S. regional banks, but CreditSuisse the other day and now Deutsche Bank...investors seem to be wondering if they can feel safe with their banks, and that could lead to them first selling and then asking questions. So far, there doesn't seem to be much of a panic on the markets...yet. As we wrote in our...

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Collateral Damage or Covert Help? (after being stuck in an indeterminate state, our models are out today with their trading plans for the day) The banking meltdown seems to be the collateral damage from the Fed's battle with inflation. Chair Powell tried his best to be balanced in his press conference post-FOMC yesterday, trying to indicate his preparedness to...

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Look Before You Jump! The banking meltdown seems to be spreading across the globe, and it could potentially be just the tip of the iceberg. When something doesn't feel right, stay away from it. There are going to be plenty of trading/investment opportunity down the road - sitting on the sidelines for a day or two does not harm your financial well being; rather,...

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The Banking Meltdown Rollercoaster Does NOT Bode Disaster! The banking meltdown that started last week is now being stemmed by the Fed, with the new Fed facility extended to the banks for liquidity. Despite the failures of SVB, Signature Bank, and Silvergate, do NOT bet against the Fed's ability to stave off economic disasters in the U.S. There is no better...

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Fed Fight Fatigue/Reality to Set In Soon? Markets are still trying hard to get unstuck from the Fed Fight and move on in some clear direction. Despite the apparently big moves and volatility and Fed events, the markets are just where they were in 2nd/3rd week of January! Double check the S&P 500 Index close on Jan 8th-12th, and you can see it. There is no clear...

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The Fed Failing to Scare Inflation Off This morning's initial jobless claims and productivity numbers show that the Fed is failing to scare off inflation, and the yields continue to rise. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning points to the potential for an upside spike. Thus, while the trend is downwards, bears need to be extremely nimble...

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Inflation and Rising Yields The rising yields and inflation concerns still a big hang over on the markets. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be extremely nimble as there is a risk of sudden upside spikes due to retail stop runs by the big boys. Positional Trading Models:...

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Inflation Tamed Not The Inflation numbers (PCE) this morning do not bode well, especially given the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming out from the various Fed speakers. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be patient before striking as there is a risk of retail stop runs by...

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Event Risks Resolving Downwards? Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of upside momentum and wait for a while before dipping their toes into the longs". The FOMC-Minutes and GDP-Release events yesterday and this morning seem to...

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FOMC Minutes and GDP To Set the Near Term Tone Yesterday's Range Breakdown to be tested today with the FOMC minutes at 2pm EST, followed by GDP release tomorrow at 8:30am EST. Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of upside momentum and wait for a while before dipping their...

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Range Break Downward Confirmed On the Day 10 of the consolidation theme, our trading plans published on Friday, 02/17 stated: "Today's closing action needs to stay below 4088 to confirm this bearish turn. If it is not confirmed, our models point to the risk of an upward spike, trapping the shorts. If going short, beware of a potential bear trap". We got that...

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Range Broken Downward? On the Day 9 of the consolidation theme, our trading plans yesterday published: "If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is no bearish concerns as long as the index is above 4095". The index closed below that 4095 level yesterday,...

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Range Bound Consolidation - Day 9 The Post-CPI whipsaw action in the index is a continuation of the consolidation theme that's been playing out on the markets for a few days now. If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is no bearish concerns as long as...

TradersAICorp

Range Bound Consolidation - Day 8 The Post-CPI whipsaw action in the index is a continuation of the consolidation theme that's been playing out on the markets for a few days now. If the index closes below 4150 today, our models indicate continued choppy trading until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. There is no bearish concerns as long as...