UnclePennybagss

UnclePennybagss

SPY - pointing to a higher open coming up this morning following a volatile session amidst concerns over the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse on Monday. CPI came in as expected at 6% YoY and MoM at 0.4%. Regional banks continue to trade like low float small caps. I'm looking for names with capitulatory vol (5x average) that flushed out below a key...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - Gapping down with the same velocity and volume seen at the June low. VIX rising to 30, the advanced minus declining vol opening at -2900… This is a fire sale. However, SPY has fallen to the key 382 level in PM, if this level firms for the morning, we could see a bounce 385. With two major banks failing this last week, the predicted FED funds terminal rate...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - relatively flat this morning after two days of selling strength from Powell's hawkish testimony. Late in the session we had a ripping rally which quickly corrected to the downside in the after hours. To me this means that it flushed out some late shorts but the bears were still in control. Leaning slightly bearish for the day but not expecting any large...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - flat this morning as we await the second testimonial day for FED chair Powell. There has been lots of opportunity in small caps the past week so shifting focus there, also to avoid the chop that we see in large cap on Fed days. OPK - Opko health sign deal for experimental Epstein-Barr virus vaccine. Triple bottom type of action at the 1.00 level. Showing 3...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - finished the week with some incredible bullish action, giving bears absolutely no chance to gain momo. Be cautions with the momo continuing today as we are reaching the previous range bottom res. At 405. AI related names back in play with C3.AI earnings results. AI, ASAN, PATH, BBAI TAL - breaking above the 7.77 res. Yesterday. Formed a very nice base...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - finally snapping the multi day losing streak and rallying up to 1.46% back into the upper channel of the range. There were some signs that bulls were in control yesterday, in the afternoon when it made a double test of the 393.50 area and failed to get below. But to put it simply, it was making higher highs and higher lows all day. Things really took off...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - failing to make a higher high on the lower time frames now, couldn't close above the key 296.30 on the 1h or 5m. Gapping above 293.50 double bottom support, VIX rising, recently lost the 200 EMA, 10 year making new highs. Downside momentum is still in favour, next stop over the next week is 387. NTLA- FDA nod to start trial of CRISPR gene editing...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - weakness continues, failing to approach yesterday's PD high and flushing past the PD low to finish off the trading day. Gapping up this morning back into supply. Bias is short. Li, BABA, BIDU (Chinese DRs) - strong economic data out of China offsets downbeat earnings reports. Li specifically gapping over 200 EMA, over the high RVOL earnings day wide range...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - No bias in SPY today with no significant economic data, low PM vol, looks like a high probability of an inside day after PD wide range bar. Short Watches: KDP - lower Long-Term Sales Growth as Fourth-Quarter Profit Misses. Down 1.7 ATRs on 1.2 RVOL at time. Key Pivot 34.15. Under the 200 MA and gapping under a channel. Negative is the rising 9 and 21 EMA....

UnclePennybagss Updated 

SPY - finished the week with the worst weekly performance of 2023, gapping up slightly into the key 200 EMA and 400 level to start the week. Looking to see how price reacts to this very important levels. A swift rejection and close below on the hourly would point to lower levels for the day, looking at pullbacks for short entries. While if we consolidate and then...

UnclePennybagss Updated 

SPY - pointing to a lower open coming up this morning ahead of significant inflation data. The release of the final core personal consumption expenditures price index on a MoM basis, which is the preferred inflation measurement of the Fed. SPY seemed to take this news negatively as we flushed down to the 396 support. SPY is in an expanding range, bouncing off key...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - as I mentioned the prior day, the selling did not stop. SPY rejected the 400.30 level twice yesterday and ended the day with the final flush down to 397. Gapping up this morning on light vol, if we can hold the 400.30 level , we could see a grind higher to 402, and maybe 404. Expect multi rejects off those levels as we haven't made a significant short-term...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - did not make a higher high the entire day as sellers were firmly in control. Opening in the PM at the key 400 level. With the VIX finally spiking yesterday and bond prices making new lows., it appears like the price action and market internals indicate this short term bear action will continue. We would need to hear dovish comments from Bullard's speak at...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - Friday session put in a clear bottom a 404 and we had a thrust above to end the week. Gapping below this base this morning. On Friday we said " If a heavy channel forms around the bottom range, I'd need to see a fake out above the channel first before shorting" this constitutes as a fake out. This would be invalidated if we close above 07. 30 on the hourly...

UnclePennybagss

SPY - in a week filled with negative news; CPI revised higher, PPI hot, jobs number higher than expected, SPY still showed resilience as I tried to break and hold 413. However, the straw that finally broker the camel's back was Bullard (a non-voting member) indicating a 50 bps hike would be his choice at the next meeting. SPY dropped like a rock from there on out...

UnclePennybagss

SPY building a few notable patterns. On the daily, a clear bullish flag. On the hourly over the last 3 days, an ascending triangle, where it’s attempted to break 413 numerous times but failed. Closing below 410 on the hourly may indicate further show-term downside pressure to 416. However, if we don't see that buying strong names near the bottom of the channel is...

UnclePennybagss

SPY made an attempt to breakout of the weekly bullish flag yesterday but failed, closed below PD high, and now gapping down. Bears seem to be in control for the short-term following the slight hot CPI umber. Slightly bearish bias today but need to start closing below PD low for confirmation. SHOP - traded shop at the close yesterday and saw some large order flow...

UnclePennybagss

SPY extending losses yesterday as the 10-year yield reaches is highest level in months. Key resistance is 410, IMO we are unlikely to get there until we form some type of base. The sellers are in control at the movement so pops favor shorts. Key support is 404, then 402,40, then 400. NET - earnings beat and raises guidance slightly, showing relative strength...