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DXY - Dollar Squeeze into Q4
DXY
, 1D
Long
DXY: DXY - Dollar Squeeze into Q4
Updated 

Idea for DXY: - Why there may be a dollar squeeze into Q4 2021: - June 30, G-SIB banks begin stock buybacks. - Capital returned to investors nearing $200bn as estimated by Barclays. - $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits. - "With a 5% SLR minimum at the holdco level, banks run 20-times leverage, which means that $10...

Long UUP (S1/S3)
UUP
, 1D
Long
UUP: Long UUP (S1/S3)
Updated 

Long UUP shares for 12% of portfolio 2.2N frequency stop

Black Swan - Risk Parity Event
US05Y
, 1D
US05Y: Black Swan - Risk Parity Event
Updated 

Idea for Bonds: - US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune. - Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes. - Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use...

Volatility - Convergence, Reverse Calendar Spread
VIX
, 1D
Long
VIX: Volatility - Convergence, Reverse Calendar Spread
Updated 

Idea for VIX: - Spot VIX sub 17 (quickly rising), 2 point spread has appeared between spot VIX and front month, with a high degree of contango in term structure, and a significant spread between Treasury volatility (MOVE). - Daily Roll Yield 0.10~ - Possible to either capture spread, or have a low risk bullish bias. - Positive correlation right now with Vol and...

Energy - WTI Crude Oil Reversal
USOIL
, 1D
Short
USOIL: Energy - WTI Crude Oil Reversal
Updated 

Idea for USOIL: - I find it difficult to believe in the energy crisis narrative. I trust the currencies more. - DXY's rise will create a deflationary bust. - In time series, seasonality dominates correlations. WTI facing headwinds of bearish seasonality . Speculate a short term top at least and reversal. Going into next year or even earlier, we will see a...

Gold - "Lever Up" Goldman Says
XAUUSD
, 1D
Short
XAUUSD: Gold - "Lever Up" Goldman Says
Updated 

Idea for Gold: - Today Goldman suggested a trade idea, courtesy of the bank's European strategist Bernhard Rzymelka who urges clients to "consider levered gold upside" which while attractive exposure in its own right is also cheap optionality on even lower real yields. - "So lever up. This will probably be the best (and possibly final) party of our...

Credit - TLT Long 2023
TLT
, 1D
Long
TLT: Credit - TLT Long 2023
Updated 

Idea for TLT: - According to consumer expectations, US is already in a recession. Dow hit ATH through this, so a headfake is due. - We have been patient, but Treasury auction today is a good turning point. - Long Jan 20, 2023 145C for 8.60 debit GLHF - DPT

Black Swan - Inflation is Transitory
DXY
, 1W
Long
DXY: Black Swan - Inflation is Transitory
Updated 

Speculation for Macro: I argue that price and consumer price inflation do not influence equities as much as the dollar. Investors who are betting on stocks because of 'inflation' will be in for a shock. Yields indicate we may be entering stagflation. Economic slowdown and rising dollar will prove a stronger force than consumer price inflation. After all the...

Agriculture - Seasonality
DBA
, 1D
Long
DBA: Agriculture - Seasonality
Updated 

Brief for Agriculture: - Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities. Focus points: Coffee: Oats: Soybean: Soymeal: Cotton: Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean...

Credit - The Second Wave - Evergrande
LQD
, 1D
Short
LQD: Credit - The Second Wave - Evergrande
Updated 

Idea for Credit: - Stocks had a bit of a reprieve as China's collapsing property firms were halted for 2 weeks, and China's markets had gone on holiday for Golden week. - Stock market had an unwinding of hedges last week, but are things really 'Back to Normal'? - The bond market does not think so, and seems to be presaging more drawdown to come. - EM High Yield...

Macro - Recession
US30Y
, 1M
Short
US30Y: Macro - Recession
Updated 

Idea for Macro: - I'm of the opinion that Fed has already made a policy mistake. - Recession has already begun, as per my September 29 idea and now confirmed by consumer sentiment. - Likely the nominal yield falls below 1.000 again, and yield curve to invert once more. GLHF - DPT

RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMC
XLRE
, 1W
Short
XLRE: RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMC
Updated 

Idea for Real Estate: - Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct. - MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev: - Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal. - We will have more confirmation next week depending...

Credit - Bonds Volatility Megaphone
MOVE
, 1D
Long
MOVE: Credit - Bonds Volatility Megaphone
Updated 

Idea for MOVE: - Bond markets seeing volatility after the Quad Witching and FOMC double whammy. - US02Y 2x ATR spike: - Expecting turbulence the rest of the month. GLHF - DPT

Stocks - AAPL You Know The Story of the Fall
AAPL
, 1D
Short
AAPL: Stocks - AAPL You Know The Story of the Fall
Updated 

Idea for AAPL: - AAPL falls below the 100 DMA and Cloud afterhours on news that productivity would be slashed due to chip shortages. - If Apple can't get chips, who do you think can? - Apple tends to lead market drawdowns. Watch tech for further weakness. 3 of FAANGM are now below 100D. - We are passed peak earnings of QE, and I believe it is foolish to not...

Volatility - UVXY Long December
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: Volatility - UVXY Long December
Updated 

Idea for UVXY: - VIXex today, seems Long Vol is being abandoned as a hedge (!?). Delightful entry for me. - 17C Dec 17, 3.35 debit. GLHF - DPT

Long VIX (S3)
VIX
, 1D
Long
VIX: Long VIX (S3)
Updated 

Long VIX Oct 19 16C 6.20 debit Testing falling wedge breakout: And we know a VIX compression cycle is near its end:

Volatility - UVXY Long
UVXY
, 1D
Long
UVXY: Volatility - UVXY Long
Updated 

Idea for UVXY: - Long November. - DXY is relentless. - Today is 202(1) 9/29. GLHF - DPT

Stocks - TSLA Short Call Spread
TSLA
, 1D
Short
TSLA: Stocks - TSLA Short Call Spread

Idea for TSLA: - Earnings Today, Expect price to have peaked. - Short 870C/Long 900C Jan 21, 2022 (14.00 credit) GLHF - DPT

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