VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ONON has always been a pretty expensive stock that i've watched but not owned (have only owned NASDAQ:CROX but also no longer any footwear). that being said, the setup in the quarter does look like a low bar. a. google trends impressive b. seasonal trends c. QoQ and d. stock back to where it "missed" last q. objectively there's no...

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5/13/24 - vrockstar - i'm staying away from this even though the volatility is guaranteed. take a look at the 5/17 chain for $16P open interest. on one hand - i believe the large P vs. C skew is correct in the terminal NASDAQ:STNE isn't a great LT own (prefer NASDAQ:DLO or NASDAQ:MELI , even NYSE:NU ) but it's still a marginal gainer vs. NYSE:PAGS (which...

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5/13/24 - vrockstar - incredibly lump results, and surprising stock remains bid even after the last two whiffs (big whiffs too). cool tech. would like to see this win, but burning 10 mm a year w/ 20 mm in the bank, some complications in the stack and overall worth north of $150 mm... is a tough one for me when i can buy profitable software w/ better mgns, growing...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - simply too much debt in the capital stack to be interested on the long side, despite the potential for a beat/ squeeze on the almost 9 days to cover. co cutting opex and growing GP is in theory a +ve ... but seems like a bandage to a more serious growth problem if the most they can eek out is 10% - which is not enough to beat competition at...

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do yourself a favor and look into this incoming CME from the sun. youtu.be/9QCA3jouCKk - it's a short video WATCH IT NOW 6 or 7 earth bound flares that each have the capacity to f things up massively. the reason this matters is it's a DOWN ONLY situation. the market doesn't know about this (clearly) so any non-event doesn't move the market "back up". many...

VROCKSTAR

do yourself a favor and look into this incoming CME from the sun. youtu.be - it's a short video WATCH IT NOW 6 or 7 earth bound flares that each have the capacity to f things up massively. the reason this matters is it's a DOWN ONLY situation. the market doesn't know about this (clearly) so any non-event doesn't move the market "back up". many sources i look...

VROCKSTAR

5/10/24 - vrockstar - took an hour to deeper dive this y'day (as i was forced to having gotten an average entry of ~$24/shr last night). the conclusion here is - you might see a retrace (which is what i was playing), but the story is defn a whole lot more complicated than meets the eye. perhaps on a valuation front, which is what i do, the FCF is practically all...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - love the company and hate the valuation here. massive gap at $20. need to adjust EPS for the debt (which is a toxic factor right now!) and you're in the high 20s (at the least) and closer to low 30s on my ests of how the market is thinking about b2b eps resets. 6x sales is too much for 10% sales growth too. not my rules. if you own it, i don't...

VROCKSTAR

5/9/24 - vrockstar - i genuinely don't think there's a valuation we'll agree that's ownable toward where the stock is parked. 60c this year on 50x? $30 stock. "yes" but look at that EPS growth, it's 100% yoy... yes but it's 70c the following year and trust me it's probably not going to cagr 50%. if it does... pls comment below. 8x sales for mid teens to 20%...

VROCKSTAR

5/9/24 - vrockstar - burning a post to simply ask if 15x EPS for 10% growth is "good" in this tape for you to punt? the issue here is 5% fcf yield with 10% growth is better had in a number of better mgn B2B names, and all of these have gotten hacked hard this Q. also consider AKAM's performance since last Q - the reset simply puts us to the place we were heading...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - HIGH RISK LONG alert there's no obvious way to value this, but i'm going to put it in the fundamental post camp b/c that's all I do. positioning seems WAY off here and that's the point. this is like 15-20 days to cover, there's no option gamma... just shorts that get destroyed if these guys post anything even reasonably "decent" ...

VROCKSTAR

5/9/24 - vrockstar - super weird one to write up i'll admit - but hang with me here, think this is an interesting risk reward on EPS print 1) seems like the right "fit" for bidenomics, co's getting liquidated, ppl losing biz's etc. and these guys r the specialists in this? interesting "benefactor" of the environment 2) growing 5-10% a year minimally, and...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - b2b's are getting squashed (software generally), and i don't like the long setup into this print so if beats/ stock rips... you don't lose by not participating (beyond the oppty cost) that said, i LOVE the idea of dip buying here b/c of healthy growth profile, reasonable 5-6x sales (not excellent, but not to stay away from), the 10x PE needs...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - post market review here and running the #s. 1) this must be a HQ co bc the chart/ results seem to be quite consistent. cash generative, great, net cash, no need to raise etc. etc. good R&D budget, good zip code (clould aux). 2) nearly 30x PE is TOO expensive for 10% EPS growth implied and nearly 10x sales also (way) too rich for 10+% growth -...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - this is one i've long loved and wanted to size up in the right situation. the last print was a disaster, but probably not considering the consumer environment. the current px is defn already taking this into account. at 14x PE, net cash, high single digit FCF yields... objectively this is an OBVIOUS buy in a 9-12 mo context (even year-end...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - wow i'm not really a bear b/c the dollar denominator is a dumpster fire forever... but i'm writing again to warn that 6x sales for mediocre mgns (they should be MUCH better given it's a lot of UGC in this biz) and pretty poor cash generation requiring multi-year-legs of growth is simply not ownable in this tape. the stock since last print is...

VROCKSTAR

5/8/24 - vrockstar - look guys i think the UX rocks, the 3% IRA carrot was genius and overall... this "is" a better way to do banking/ crypto/ trading. not going to short the stock, but a lot of this positive stuff is defn incorporated since last EPS where the stock ran nearly 100% and it's realistically "just" off it's highs. even if we assume 50c of EPS power,...

VROCKSTAR

5/8/24 - vrockstar - burning a post for anyone reading this. 7x sales for no growth, high capital intensity industry w/ high rates, cash burn and comps trading rough (even industry leaders r failing to hold bid)... if you love it - perhaps sell into the print if you think they'll "beat". HOWEVER, be warned, too many names are failing to run EVEN WITH good prints...