VictorCobra

VictorCobra Updated 

Here on the left, I've shown the BLX chart (Bitcoin index with the longest price history, plus its log curve) and the broken long term uptrend on the Litecoin chart on the right. Why Litecoin? Well, the 2017 bull market was characterized by astronomical gains for Bitcoin alternatives. At that time, it was about which functioned as the best currency. Litecoin and...

VictorCobra

If you're a fan of workers' rights, I suggest taking a look at Fran Drescher's speech about SAG- AFTRA's unanimous decision to strike. It really gets at the pathos and the gravity of our current moment in history. Markets are currently in an upwards trajectory. This is off the back of supposed cooling inflation, a strong labor force, and the emergence of AI into...

VictorCobra Updated 

I am mostly burnt out on writing commentary on Bitcoin/crypto as a whole, especially as things have largely played out in alliance with my speculations over the last 18 months. Instead, I will provide periodic technical updates. First, I'll provide my own sentiment about traditional markets. WHAT'S GOING ON WITH STOCKS? On the linear scale, it looks like the...

VictorCobra Updated 

As I've been talking about over the last several weeks, the market SEEMS overdue for some sort of relief rally. Although I believe crypto has begun a longer term downtrend and likely will not see all-time highs in the foreseeable future, it is not unreasonable to expect some hope to be injected into the market before further sustained downside. Of course, the...

VictorCobra Updated 

After some time, Bitcoin has finally tested the $20k level. All the cryptos I held throughout the bull market are now below the levels where I first de-risked in January, 2021. This means that prices are now below every single one of my sell points. A move like this seemed likely to me, considering the breakdown of the 3-day 200 MA back in April. Prior to that, I...

VictorCobra Updated 

BNB has been consistently the best performing crypto asset since its inception in 2017. Since then, it has gone from mere pennies to nearly $700, outperforming both Ethereum and Bitcoin. How is this possible, given that the TOTAL crypto market cap lingers close to its 2017 all-time high, 5 years later?? How is this possible, given that the crypto market itself...

VictorCobra Updated 

The saying is usually "a wolf in sheep's clothing," but you'll see why I reworded it a little further down. The above charts show TRX (Tron) and BNB (Binance Coin) side by side, in what I believe to be distribution ranges after breaking uptrends. Distribution is how these players achieve profit (selling to prospective buyers). I think they will eventually break...

VictorCobra Updated 

This is just a quick update on Bitcoin. I will also include the Bitcoin/SPX chart in this post, simply because it continues to appear much weaker than BTC/USD, which I think is fundamentally significant - particularly with waning liquidity in crypto markets and the loss of broader appeal. In the above chart, you can see that Bitcoin is treading water above the...

VictorCobra

Just making a short projection. I don't want to spend the time making any long posts at the moment, but I do want to provide some quick updates. My guess is the long term uptrend for ETH will break in the upcoming months, resulting in new bear market lows for Ethereum. I think there's a decent chance it'll enter that green zone on my chart. All my fundamental...

VictorCobra Updated 

Zoomed in, you can see price is butting right up against that broken long term trendline, while the weekly oscillator is reaching the overbought zone. Price has also yet to reach the bottom of the curved channel (pink) The BLX chart is also mostly dominated by sell volume. Another odd thing to note is the enormous spike in volume on stablecoin traded pairs...

VictorCobra Updated 

Alrighty, now that Bitcoin is flirting with thirty-one thousand, it's time for a real TA / FA update. (Tradingview's got some weird glitches recently so I have to write out some of the prices). I did suggest back in November that Bitcoin seemed due for a rally towards $30k. I even suggested that a quick test of the $19.8k level was necessary for a break of the...

VictorCobra Updated 

Back in April, when Bitcoin was still well above $30k, I wrote about why I thought it could fall straight to $20k. The analysis ended up proving correct. I was looking at the 3-day 200 MA and the 3-day 50 MA. This is my first "long" idea for Bitcoin in a little while. Although my feelings about Bitcoin and crypto have soured since roughly one year ago, I don't...

20:00

VictorCobra

Hey everyone, here's a quick video update. It looks like there's something wrong with Tradingview's screen record function, so it's possible the video will not show up. In that case, this will be audio only and there's not much I can do about it. Finally had some time today due to a light workload this week (gotta love religious holidays). In this video, I talk...

VictorCobra

I'ts been a while! My posts will likely to continue to be sporadic, but I thought I'd share some thoughts on the current situation. I have a lot more to say, but my time is limited these days. So here it goes. I think it's become pretty clear that *if* crypto is the future of finance, Ethereum is not it. I feel like I've exhausted all my arguments as to why I...

VictorCobra Updated 

In July of last year, I wrote about what I thought we could see as a "best case scenario" for the crypto market. So far, even the current bounce has been fairly weak by historical standards. I've been pessimistic about this market, but even I expected more. Here's the original post: The market really needed to make a strong move a bit sooner. Since last July, we...

19:57

VictorCobra

Hey everyone, here's my first update in 2 months. It's possible I'll have enough time to make a written update today as well. Although I mentioned in my last post that it would be my last update for a long time, it seems a "long time" merely means "just a couple of months." Kidding. I just couldn't resist sharing what my thoughts are about the current market...

VictorCobra

This is going to be a long post, not only because it's a bit of a review of the writing I've done over my 4 years of participating on this site, but also because it will likely be my last post for a long time. So there will be a combination of numerous links to posts from the past as well as some reflective banter. Over the coming years, I think we will see some...

VictorCobra

In May, 2022, I wrote about how I thought the TOTAL crypto market cap could head down towards the $760 Billion level (all-time high from 2017) when it was still well above $1 Trillion. Here is the original post: Here is another post I wrote back in April 2022, when Bitcoin was still flirting with $40k. In this post, I wrote about the "death" of Bitcoin, which I...