Vyaz

Vyaz

AMZN may become the most hated stock next year. I expect to see a bounce into April to 120-130 zone, then down to 30-40 level into mid 24. My wag, we'll see some terrible things in the world trade that might trigger the selloff. Be careful!

Vyaz

Few squiggles left to reach the sell zone in NDX (13.6k-14k). Better exit longs sometime by mid-end April to be prepared for wave (C) of circle 4. I then see wave 1 and 2 of (C) complete by Oct'23, followed by wave 3 into Jan-Feb'24. Closest target for the whole move of circle 4 is 8k-9k range in mid-24. It can restart the bull market afterwards :) Stay tuned!

Vyaz

DXY is prone for a major down move over the next 5-7 years. Longer term picture shows drop to 50-60 level by somewhere 2027-2028. Looks sensible in light of long-term inflation expectations and on-going decoupling of the world economy. Commodities, emerging markets stocks and JPY might be the best asset during these times.

Vyaz Updated 

EWT wise Amazon is building a tradeable short setup in 1-2 / 1-2 fashion. I expect a retracement to 3200 area to complete wave 2 of circle 3 of wave A. It may take up to 2 weeks to complete wave 2. Demand zone for the whole wave A resides in the area of wave 4 of the larger degree (blue area on the left side).

Vyaz

Brent is cooking wave i of (v) of larger wave C. Short-term target is 120-125 range. Ideal target for (v) is 230-250 range. Expect to see completion of the whole structure sometime mid next year. Fasten your belts.

Vyaz

My base case is gold forming a 4th wave which might take a shape of a triangle, meaning it will be in the sidelines for quite a long time. I expect a meaningful trough sometimes in Feb-March 2023, near 1700+ zone. Once wave 4 is complete we should see a strong move to 2200-2300 area to complete wave v. Further details are on the chart.

Vyaz Updated 

A nice set-up for CNY depreciation against dollar. c wave of (b) is almost done. China/Taiwan conflict might trigger that.

Vyaz Updated 

Long term - Bitcoin is building a base for wave iv before one more leg up to 120-140k+ zone. Short term expect to see completion of triangle in wave 4 followed by weakness in wave 5 of (C) of iv.

Vyaz Updated 

In the longer term I have two opposite scenarios - base case (red) implies bullish run up to 1.6+ zone, alt count (blue) would bring us to 0.85+. Details are below: Long-term: EURUSD is building a base for a long term bullish structure. I count impulsive run from Dec'16 to Jan'18 as circle wave a of the 5th wave in the leading diagonal. At the moment it's...

Vyaz

Here is how I see crude going down to 30+ zone into the end of this year. 1-2 / 1-2 set up is almost complete, we should see a strong move down starting end of April/early May. First support is 70+ zone, then 50, and 30 to complete the whole structure. I expect a long lasting (10+ years) bullish trend afterwards.

Vyaz

A long-term bear market is ahead. Almost all indexes are to loose 70-80% from their highs. Would not be surprised to see DJIA breaking 15k level this year. Hedges are strongly recommended here.

Vyaz

A terribly evil scenario is under the hood in oil. 5 wave structure of (c) of B is almost complete. It might still reach 135 in a month or so, but EWT-wise it's pointing down over the next couple of years. A measure of wave A in log scale points to a C-wave target of 20-25 sometimes next year. I see similar setups in almost all commodities. Guess China/Taiwan...

Vyaz

RTS is finishing wave a of larger E of the triangle. Trough should be expected sometimes in June-Sept later this year. Short term is bullish in wave b of E.

Vyaz

Oil is completing wave b of a larger B, expect down in wave c to 30-40 zone

Vyaz

USDRUB looks like in the wave 2 of C of iii which targets 90-95 zone sometimes in mid-2022

Vyaz Updated 

TESLA ideal downside target resides in 460 zone. Expect some weakness into next week followed by strong rally in wave 4 of c of iv. Expect a through by mid July near 460.

Vyaz

A closer look at SBER forced me to revise my count - I now consider it has topped in wave v of larger 3. Expect to see a bottom mid 2022 somewhere in 200 zone. This makes me think Russian indexes may show final push to new high in June (countwise oil should bottom somewhere in 60 zone soon and make a final rally above the recent high which may trigger rally in...

Vyaz

See DXY in wave 1 of c of 5 of a multi-year contracting wedge. Looks like we're in wave iv of 1 at the moment, hence more downside to come until the year end. Year 2022 will be the last chance to buy protection from inflation though avoid being long in commodities before 4Q2022.