Some people never learn. 93% RSI. Correction inevitable just a matter of patience and correct position size. Santa came early.
I've been bullish the market for a long time and had a great 2024 but I believe the signs are now visible that the market is ready to take a breather. That may have to wait until the Xmas holidays or early new year but I suspect that in the first part of 2025 we could see a decent 5%-10% pullback which should present another buying opportunity for even higher...
the Momentum ETF (MTUM) is showing signs of a potential top (at east an interim top for a 10% sized correction if not larger). Momentum is waning, RSI is diverging, wave patterns can count as complete and the market in general is looking stretched at least short term. Watch the main component stocks like JPM WMT NVDA ORCL for clues.
The outsized upside moves we are seeing in recent days of more speculative names within the market (e.g. SOUN but also Bitcoin mining stonks on the back of BTC breaking $100k) are symptomatic of a nearing tradable top for many names and the market as a whole even if this is only an "interim" top, a decent correction is likely to follow in coming weeks (maybe into 1Q 2025).
Looks like there is a good chance that small cap stocks (Russ2k) outperform large cap tech (Nas100) over the next 4-8 weeks at least
Self explanatory. Very long term USD bullish but in coming months potential to see a 10% pullback in the USD.
Self explanatory. Early stages if wave 5 higher for yields to 6%+ in coming quarters but likely to see a pullback to 4% in days/weeks ahead first.
This is the spike in volatility I have been anticipating for a while (you can never pinpoint exact event). Can easily see a 50+ print on VIX this week. YOU MUST WAIT for the spike top before attempting to sell vol/buy risk assets but it should present a good opportunity.
Most folks know my view on inflation and yields over a very long term horizon years++ (they are going HIGHER) BUT in the short/med term we could be looking at a RALLY in bonds (lower yields) in the weeks ahead. LONG TLT @ 90.80 with a stop below 88.80 and a target of 100. Reward/Risk 5:1
Still viewing Silver as long term higher. Added to portfolio posn today at 29.95.
Today could (repeat COULD - not confirmed) be the start of a turn for a period of small cap outperformance vs large cap tech. Came within 5% of my long term target so QQQ/IWM could still just be just pausing before one more leg higher BUT there could be a big rotation starting!
I have chastised small cap analysts and FURUs over many years for their propensity to lure investors into smaller names vs large cap tech because the overall market is bullish and higher beta smaller stocks should outperform. They haven't. As my chart clearly shows it's been one way traffic for the last 22 years since the lows following the bursting of the dotcom...
Folks that know me know that I don't trust crypto. I don't understand or fully believe its "use" case bull hypothesis. But I do believe we are in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation. In my mind BTC is simply another risk asset and as such an "inflation hedge" or "fiat decline hedge". In that regard I may have underestimated the ability...
I have been bullish USD/JPY for a long time in the macro portfolio. We are now reaching levels last seen at the end of 1986 (the year before I started trading it) so even I haven't seen these levels (above 160.40) LOL! We are however way overdue a correction/consolidation. I am not advocating going short, just I would not be going long/adding at these levels, the...
For those "economists" out there who couldn't forecast the weather for last week let alone anything important ahead of time (especially the special data dependent forecaster lol) and for anyone unsure about where prices (for just about everything) are headed over coming years/decade+. Here's a clue. Higher.
This is where I think we are in the very long term cycle for semiconductors since the 2008 bear market lows. It's a bull market. And we're only about half way through...... May be due a 10%-15% correction over coming months but ultimately headed higher (a lot higher).
Folks have been asking about my view on BTC for the coming months. We are still in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation. This is bullish for risk assets including BTC. I see $80k-$90k as possible in the coming 6 months (maybe after a bit more consolidation). And of course if it get's a head of steam then the BIG ROUND NUMBER will be a...
Folks have been asking about my view on Gold for the coming months. We are still in the early innings of a generational bull market for inflation. This is bullish for risk assets including Gold. I see $2850 as possible in the coming 6-12 months.