WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey

What does the last 2 troughs in the TYA channel has in common with the current? Equity markets were at all-time-high. SPX CY'18 is expected to deliver +26% eps growth this year thanks to the tax cuts and budget deficits. Next year, it is expected to deliver something closer to norm, 10% growth. That is if the Trump's FART bill (google it, not kidding, there is...

WellTrainedMonkey

AT&T is trading on a long-term uptrend yielding > 6% with heavy volume coming in; The set-up looks like an ascending triangle but that is a story for another day. The Time Warner acquisition and repeal of net neutrality is going to a major game changer for AT&T. Forget 5G, it is about content.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Yes, I got stopped out on the last long TSLA call and to be honest, I am not a fan of the company; But here I am making another call to long TSLA...Why? Well, there is a potential ABCD completion on high volumes. The company is heading into earnings desperate to prove the haters wrong and 4 out 5 of the most read articles on Bloomberg news were about TSLA. ...

WellTrainedMonkey

I don't think the Dax can escape the carnage in Southern Europe and a key trend line broken, the Dax is potentially making a lower high (78.6%) and starting on a CD leg to 11,320. Global markets treating us to a World Cup of EM distress.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

I think it is about time for gas pipes to get some love. ETP has tested the 78.6% retracement from the 2008 low 4x and is building a nice double bottom with extremely high volumes. The long-term secular downtrend is clearly broken, with the stock paying 12.5% and pipeline capacity running out, this is a good a time to put in a long position for ETP.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

So much hate for AMD from the collapse of cryptos but crypto GPU is such a small part of the business. AMD is trading within a well-defined flag pattern which would suggest it is a long continuation play. In any case, there is a clearly defined downside ($9.50) and potential upside ($13) from the flag pattern for a high risk reward long set-up and you get some...

WellTrainedMonkey

USDJPY making a lower high, 78.6% retracement from Jan'2018 highs which suggest an impending CD down leg is commencing with a downside target of around c.102.6 +/- which would coincide with multiple congestion zones since 2013. When trading the USDJPY, it always pays to look to run the opposite trade in the EURUSD. EURUSD making a potential higher low, 78.6%...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

In a world where bunds and JGBs are zero bound, why wouldn't 3% yield and an appreciating USD be attractive to global investors? There is a weekly ABCD completion in the TY1! on high volumes which coincides with a major multi-decade structural uptrend support. A break above 119.40 in the 240M chart would be confirmation. A long in the UST10 can be hedged off...

WellTrainedMonkey

Back in April I was talking about using the elevated volatility to buy some cheap July put spreads on MA with the recognition that we might be early to game. Well...there appears to be a double ABCD completion in progress and I am keeping my fingers & toes crossed. Just a reminder, not only is this an expensive stock, it is a parabolic price action. Hope...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Think the chart says it all, HSI futures at top of consolidation channel which sets us up for a nice short to test the bottom of the range at 29550, for 5.5% downside potential. This has a clearly defined stop out range and gives optionality for a potential channel breakdown to test a ABCD target of 27500.

WellTrainedMonkey

Think the chart says it all, HSI futures at top of consolidation channel which sets us up for a nice short trade to test the bottom of the range at 29550, for 5.5% downside potential. This has a clearly defined stop out range and gives optionality for a potential channel breakdown to test a ABCD target of 27500.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Wow, lots to unpack on AAPL... #1 A big ABCD completion from Jun'2013 #2 Price action hitting the upper bound of a channel from Jul'2017. Not to mention it is a 100% extension from the Nov'2017 to Feb'2018 ABC sequence #3 Negative MACD divergence and price action Stops can be set slightly above the top of the near-term channel with downside targets $148...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Couple of harmonic completion in JPM:- #1 The Feb to Mar butterfly formation which resulted in... #2 An extended ABCD down move to 106. #3 Price reversal with heavy volume on the 138.2% extension of the #2 ABCD which... #4 Happens to be the 78.6% retracement level (higher low) from the 6 Feb low. All these leads me to think JPM is about to make a move up to try...

WellTrainedMonkey

The US consumer staples sector is the worst performing sector YTD and poor old Kroger is -50% over 2 years. Think Kroger has completed a downside ABCD and has made a higher high which is setting up for a CD leg up to $34 region. The broader equity market looks like it is losing steam and it is time to look for defensive. You still buy your milk and bread from...

WellTrainedMonkey

Time for some mean reversion play. COP is the sore thumb sticking out amongst the oil plays with the stock making new highs post Feb crash. With results coming up and WTI completing its own 3-Drive formation as the pipes out of the Permian get clogged, it would be a good idea to put on some downside directional trade on COP. Given the out performance vs. the...

WellTrainedMonkey

Markets are dynamic and I like to revisit my assumptions to search for the null hypothesis. The last time I posted on the ESA, I was looking for a CD leg up for a potential upside to c.2800. While the call has partially worked, I think it is time to update and revisit. The recent price action in the ESA suggests a volatility coil is building up; it is best...

WellTrainedMonkey

When I see parabolic price action like Mastercard's weekly chart, I start thinking on how to structure a short because we all know parabolic price action always always ends in tears. It does help that MA is trading at....3.5x of its average 13-years P/B and has a...-0.25% real earnings yield (adjusted for US 10 T-bond). With MA implied vol trading at an elevated...

WellTrainedMonkey

This is further to my earlier post on ESA: Make or break it. Since then the ESA has broken down from the continuation wedge and appears to have found support on the 200-DMA which coincides with a 78.6% retracement. Given the heavy data dump coming out this week and the US heading in earnings season, I would play it on the safe side to close shorts and look for...