WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey

For someone who has been professionally and personally overweight long duration UST bonds since Oct'2018, today's Chart of the Day is a reminder to take a deep breath and consider the possibility that Black Monday 2020 might not be the end of the world, yet. This is the inverse of the $ZN1! chart I posted yesterday and despite the massive 1-day relative...

WellTrainedMonkey

Another Monday and another make it or break it level, this time with UST10 futures at $132:- --> $ZN1! is making at 3rd attempt to test overhead resistance at $132. Why is this a crucial resistance? This resistance line is created by joining the 2012 and 2016 peaks. If you recall, 2012 and 2016 marked the troughs for the European Debt Crisis (& started...

WellTrainedMonkey

2019 and much of 2020 has been a challenge in the sense how equity markets are defying economic indicators and challenging valuation norms. We can talk all day about the wall from money from Central Banks, but the cold hard truth is market turns when there are no more buyers or no more sellers. This is the situation we find ourselves with crude:- --> Crude has...

WellTrainedMonkey

This is a follow-up to my 16 Aug post on the $JPY as it teeter on the edge of the lower boundary of a giant wedge which began in 2012; the start of the Kuroda grand experiment. Well...I would say the $JPY has conclusively broken on the downside. The measured objective, just because of the scale of the wedge, is around the 79 handle which may appear far...

WellTrainedMonkey

The current technical picture for the $ESA is very similar to that in 4Q-18 and is essentially a pennant formation in the making. A pennant formation is essentially a continuation pattern and the measured objective for a breakdown is 2680. Economically speaking, the US is not an economically isolated island and the PMI slipping below 50 to 49.9 should be viewed...

WellTrainedMonkey

$CNY is higher than the initial breakout which caused mass panic among the macro tourists on TV. Instead all eyes are on the hapless Fed Chair who shall be known as the man who crashed equities markets. Equity markets will get spooked regardless whatever Powell decide to do. A hold means money's too tight, a full blown rate cut program means an acknowledgment...

WellTrainedMonkey

I had previously posted a weekly chart on the $JPY which highlighted the volatility coil which the $JPY has been trading in since the start of Abe/Kuroda monetary experiment. Well...the $JPY is at the tippy end now and will it break down or will the wedge's lower boundary hold? With the BoJ out of "conventional" ammunition and seemingly on hold, is the $JPY a...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

I often get told than BTC defies traditional technical analysis because fundamentally it is the next big thing. I swear I have heard this line before...nevertheless, $BTC downward channel remains intact with price action oscillating around a SSR level which strong suggests range bound price action. If you zoom it out to the weekly level, you can see the price...

WellTrainedMonkey

$ESA broke down from a pennant formation yesterday which suggest a CD leg has commenced with a downside objective of 2700 which coincides with a Daily SSR support level. Check out my chart series named "Confluence of Coincidences" which was published a few weeks ago.

WellTrainedMonkey

With the $ES and $NQ rebounding off the 200-dma and at the 61.8% retracement level, the big question is this another BTFD moment or part of a bigger move down? The $RTY might provide a clue here with a breakdown from a wedge and a retest of the wedge lower boundary which is also marked by a SSR resistance. Odds are for a CD leg down for the Russell 2K and...

WellTrainedMonkey

$EDU has tested and failed at the $108 level for the 3x in 20 months. Short-term price action has confirmed a break in the immediate trend. This is a company which has sacrificed margins for earnings growth. Earnings growth is at +1 standard deviation while operating margins have crashed from 22.5% (end 2009) to a miserable 8.9%, at -2 standard deviation...

WellTrainedMonkey

Anybody saw $ADP hitting its ABCD completion? Trump has overshadowed the fact that US Services PMI just came in 2pts below expectations and the major auto companies have been laying off workers as inventory piles up. ADP operating margins are at -1 standard deviation levels while its valuations metrics are at +1 standard deviation into a slowing economy. 1.6%...

WellTrainedMonkey

Couple of things to unpack with Softbank, 9984: #1 Lower 78.6% high from previous peak #2 Previous peak was reversal off a massive long-term wedge resistance marking major tops from 2006 #3 Broke down from 30M SSR and key MA support #4 Softbank is super levered and materially dependent on unicorn valuations for its acquisitions to keep 9984 share price up. ...

WellTrainedMonkey

Iron ore futures is reversing upon a weekly stretched ABCD completion which is confirmed by price action hitting SSR resistance and breaking down below key MA support. Iron ore prices has been supported largely by supply issues but demand is being tested this trade war. Not sure those highly indebted property developers in China, especially those which have been...

WellTrainedMonkey

If the Donald wants to play rough with China, will the Chinese continue to play nice by suppressing the RMB?

WellTrainedMonkey

Powell did the best he could, but it was always going to be lose-lose proposition for the July rate cut. With no Fed cow bells and almost zero chance of a trade deal, the negative cycle is catching up with the $ESA. I have posted in recent days on how the FANGs and chip stocks are breaking down, why continue to pay top dollar in the belief that the $ESA will...

WellTrainedMonkey

With no Fed support and 1 tweet from Trump, $HSI has finally broken down from the pennant formation which is situated in the middle of a long-term channel pattern. With the breakdown, $HSI should be revisiting the lower boundary of the long-term channel at 19.8k over the medium term. The Chinese will not bend over backwards to strike a deal with Trump whom they...

WellTrainedMonkey

$NVDA, reversing off the top of a pennant pattern. No reason to believe that $NVDA should behave any different from AMD or the chip sector in general. Play the pennant range for what it is and see if it develops into a downward continuation pattern. EV/EBITDA of 24x into a slowing cycle...