WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Softbank has come under increasing scrutiny for its eye-popping investments and corporate governance practices. Investing almost a billion into a company embroiled in a massive accounting fraud scandal (Wirecard) is not what I would characterize as best use of shareholders' capital. Starting from the 2009 trough, the stock has completed 5-waves up with the price...

WellTrainedMonkey

2318 is a leveraged financial play on the Chinese economy which is not doing very well at the moment. The stock has been consolidation in a range between $68 to $80 from July 2018 to today. Stock is back at the top of the range which suggest there is an asymmetrical risk reward trade set-up. Technically speaking, it is worthwhile to remember 2318 completed a...

WellTrainedMonkey

Apologies if I have been focusing too much on the bigger macro picture but I am too busy with some projects to do individual stock screening. Nevertheless, if you have been following my posts, you would know I am of the view that we are in the midst of a major inflection point (check out the Preponderance of Evidence series and DM me for full written report if...

WellTrainedMonkey

With the ES1! trading around the 2,750 region, it is time to revisit and look for another set up. This time round we are looking at an ascending wedge formation with the apex coinciding with the 200-days moving average. Ascending wedges are by definition a bearish pattern while the 200-dma happens to coincide with a congestion zone between Nov to Dec. I know...

WellTrainedMonkey

Couple of Trump deadlines coming up, the Chinese 25% tariffs and the funding for the wall/slate/whatever. As previously mentioned, I am of the opinion Trump is over promising and will continue to under deliver. He will be reluctant to look like he caved again. Which company will be the biggest victim of higher tariffs and maybe another shutdown? AMZN. AMZN...

WellTrainedMonkey

Swire Pacific is the holding company for a HK property developer, Cathay Pacific the airline and Swire Offshore amongst other things. Since its last results announcement, HK property prices, the Chinese economy and oil prices have all cratered. Not exactly a rosy picture for the grand old Hong. Price action is potentially completing a Gartley pattern into a...

WellTrainedMonkey

With every slowing economy comes the surge in credit cards charge-offs and MA is one of the most richly valued companies which I have looked at. Price action has been knocking around a bearish expanding triangle and held in check by the 240M 200-periods moving average with a negative MACD divergence. Not sure if I am early to the punch but downside potential is...

WellTrainedMonkey

I don't particularly think the CAT, WHR and NVDA results bear well for the market nor the economy in general and JPM is probably one of the biggest proxy out there. Recent price action has stalled at the 50-days moving average and a "support-turned-resistance" level; I personally do like buy/short breakouts/downs which had retested prior...

WellTrainedMonkey

HSI futures just completed a counter-trend rally ABCD to run smack into the 200-days moving average and I would consider it ripe for a correction. A simple analysis of the higher lows and higher highs would suggest this is a bullish retracement. Zooming out a bit, one would notice there isn't really any support at these levels till the 22,250 level which happens...

WellTrainedMonkey

Weekly chart of the $JPY says it all with global markets implying an impending recession, will the $JPY be the tradition safe haven trade or will the BoJ pull all stops to shore up the economy? Wedges traditionally have a 50:50 breakout probability on each direction... though it can also be a flag where it will be a continuation pattern... Either way, it is a...

WellTrainedMonkey

Potential xABCD formation at c.$154 which also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level of the XA leg. If we extrapolate an ABCD down, the downside projection would be c.$106 which coincides with the 2012 uptrend line. If you like MA crosses, CRM is in the throes of a death cross.

WellTrainedMonkey

If we look at what type of stocks to avoid in a bear market, one would say:- #1 -ve cash flows type companies, high cash burn #2 companies in fragmented industries #3 companies which find it hard to raise prices.... ...and I present NFLX... It burns cash like a M1 tank burns gas, every content provider is looking do a "Netflix" and NFLX has had a bad track...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

BABA is making a double bottom having reached the downside objective of the previous channel breakdown. Whilst it is difficult to derive an objective price target for a potential BABA rebound, we do have a well defined stop level and can guesstimate the max upside potential to +25% as the old support level becomes a resistance.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Market is turning bearish again and ADP looks like it has completed a counter-trend rally to the 78.6% retracement level. ABCD downside projection of $128, -c.12% with stops placed within 3% of current price; 4:1 risk reward ratio.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Been lazy with the posting as I have been over-indulging over the holiday period. As the title suggests, there is an ABCD completion on the ES1! on a long-term (2009 - present) up-trend line. At current pricing, the market is pricing c.5% 2019 eps growth at c.14x PER. 5% eps growth is just about right for annualized eps growth for this cycle (ex-extra...

WellTrainedMonkey

This is a follow-up from my 27th Dec call for a counter-trend rally to the 2,700 region. Right now the ES1! is 59 points away from the target and:- #1 At the 50% retracement level #2 Completed an ABCD from the trough #3 Negative divergence between the MACD and price action. #4 There is a little tiny wedge for which the upside target has been achieved. Being...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

CCL had a good run since since 2014 but is flat-lining at the tail end of an extended ABCD formation. High of c.$73 was a stretched 138.2% CD extension with price action range bound since Sep 2017. CCL and competitors have been aggressively adding capacity over the last few years which you would expect severe operational deleveraging in the event of a dry spell....

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

When is it a double top versus a channel? When current price action is an incredible 1.786% extension of the AB leg and the recent tops demonstrates a negative divergence with the MACD. Breakdown from the neckline will imply a downside price target of $30, -35%.