WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey

This is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence. Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.

WellTrainedMonkey

This is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence. Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months. I used RSP over the standard ES1! charts so as to eliminate the bias towards FANGs stocks in the general...

WellTrainedMonkey

Further to my call in Apr to long AMD, it is time to call the end for this parabolic run. Stock has completed a weekly ABCD with a 1.786 extension right at a long-term resistance formed by the 2000 and 2006 peak. 240M MACD has already reversed which is not apparent in the weekly chart. Not advocating a short at this point, just something on put on the radar...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

If you have to own one name today right now, this is IT. Boring old cash rich China Mobile has been trading in this channel since 2009 and this is the 3x time 941 is testing the lower end of the range. There is 5% to pick up before it hits the 1st resistance and potentially +35% if it tests the top of the range. To sweeten the deal, if you hang on till the end...

WellTrainedMonkey

I am an oil bull fundamentally and technically speaking. In this forum, I shall stick to technicals and I see a wave 4 completion with a double bottom at the 61.8% retracement level off high volumes. Assuming a 1:1 extension off the 3rd wave, I would expect an upside price objective of $16, +c.26%.

WellTrainedMonkey

NY1! has been trading in an expanding wedge aka megaphone pattern since May. Having peaked in late Aug, NY1! is starting a CD leg down with an indicative price objective of 21.6k, -3.5%. If you take a look at the USDJPY, it has been mopping around the upper boundary of a wedge. With friends like Trump, a current account surplus, trade wars and slowing ETF...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Baba is like the Goog, it isn't going away and neither is China. Baba is less about international trade than it is a domestic play. Look for policy or fiscal support as the CCCP look to soften the Trump tariffs. Stock is trading at the bottom of the channel with a potential positive MACD divergence and should consolidate around current levels before testing the...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

GM is breaking down from a massive long term wedge which bode ill for the stock. In the immediate time horizon, would expect GM to shoot for a downside ABCD completion at $32.40, -8%. Would reassess at that point for any bounce/retest of the wedge support. It is amazing to note how much US auto sales have declined from 12 months ago when it peaked at 18.5mn...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

JD is forming the right shoulder of a long term head and shoulders formation; Aug'17 left shoulder and Jan'18 head. Downside target to neckline is $34, -10%. ABCD completion from the Jan'18 peak will imply a downside target of $29, -24%.

WellTrainedMonkey

I forgot how many times NXPI has changed owners, everybody loves NXPI silicon. After getting jilted on the alter by QCOM, NXPI is $2bn richer and running a $5bn buyback program. Stock is basing after an ABCD completion and exhibits signs of a positive divergence between the price action and MACD. Will look to take a small flyer at current prices with the recent...

WellTrainedMonkey

This is one of those occasions when it is better to listen to Mr. Market then try rationalize what Mr. Market is saying. Couple of bearish signs for the EURUSD: in the immediate timeframe, the EURUSD has broken down from a channel formation with a downside target of 1.12 (c.-70bps) Channels are generally continuation patterns so the medium term outlook...

WellTrainedMonkey

It is time to refine my initial take on the Dax; a short term ABCD completion at 11.7k would set up a head & shoulder formation for which a break of the neckline would suggest a -20% correction to test a long-term trend line at the 9.9k level. Keep an eye on the EURUSD which would provide a clue; usually I would say cheap EUR is good for the Dax but this time...

WellTrainedMonkey

I don't have a price target for ADP but it is interesting to see the resistance at $140 and the lower lows with a negatively diverging MACD. This is ultimately a bearish pattern.

WellTrainedMonkey

The yield curve is flattening in hurry with the Turkey crisis and that is baaad for US banks. JPM is reversing off the top of a well established channel with MACD confirmation. Downside target of $106 gives a potential 7% return. Do note I am not advocating a straight line decline to the bottom of the range. Moves within channels are generally ABCD...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

SIE is potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulder formation which topped out at 61.8% of the previous ABCD down move to 100 in Apr'18. The Donald is gunning for Germany and global trade, this can't be too good for SIE. If you see what happened to GE, this could happen to SIE considering they are in the same business. Neckline is at 116 with...

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

Interest rates are up and new home sales are slowing. Weekly ABCD completion for TOL and declining volumes. Downside potential to test congestion zone at $38 which coincides with a 50% retracement of the CD leg. Do note this is a weekly chart and the tactical price action appears to be basing, so there could be a better price to be had for initiating any short.

WellTrainedMonkey Updated 

This is a follow-up from my 15 May post; HSI futures completing an intra-day ABCD and making a lower high (78.6% retracement) with a negative MACD cross-over. Initial target would be 30,550, -2% for an eventual test of bottom of the range at 29,500.

WellTrainedMonkey

Right, I have articulated previously on how I feel fundamentally about S&P500 earnings growth and think the anti-trade rhetoric is not going away till Nov mid-terms. ES1! is trading at the top of a mini-wedge tucked within a medium term wedge. Drawing on my Dr Suess instincts to try to explain this: Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation...